As a net oil importer, China’s oil resources are relatively short, and in the near future, petroleum resources will inevitably move to exhaustion. In addition to participating in orderly competition in a political and economic manner, China’s main channel for increasing oil resources is the development of man-made oil—the extraction of oil from coal, ie, coal to oil. Therefore, it is imperative to analyze the current status of coal-to-liquids from the perspectives of China's oil consumption, coal reserves, and energy strategies, and to study its economic feasibility, and to formulate a coal-to-oil production strategy as soon as possible.
Coal-to-oil is an important trend in China's energy strategy Since the 1970s, countries all over the world have learned lessons from multiple oil crises and generally established a complete oil security system. In order to respond to sudden oil supply disruptions, developed countries generally reserve the equivalent of 90 days of oil imports, and Japan and the United States have more than six months of oil reserves. China is the only country with no strategic oil reserves. If oil supply is interrupted in the short term, the consequences will be disastrous. To ensure the safety of oil, the inclusion of coal-based oil as a strategic energy reserve project is an important trend in China's energy strategy. At present, high and rising oil prices have pushed coal to a strategic turning point.
In a relatively long period of time, China’s crude oil output can only be maintained at the level of 160-170 million tons/year, and China has become the second largest consumer of oil. In order to solve the problem that China's oil supply is in short supply, increasing imports is a way, and coal-based oil production is self-sufficient and more economical. It is predicted that by 2020, China's oil shortage will be about 200 million tons, and in addition to 120 million tons of imports, the coal-to-oil technology can solve 60 million to 80 million tons, with an investment of about 500 billion yuan. 300 billion to 400 billion yuan. Among them, indirect liquefied synthetic oil can produce more than 20 million tons, investment about 160 billion yuan, annual output value of about 100 billion yuan. From the perspective of economic efficiency, a coal-to-oil production enterprise with a construction scale of 500,000 tons/year adopts the evaluation standard of crude oil price of not less than US$25, and the internal rate of return can reach 8% to 12%. The price of diesel products can be controlled. In the 2,000 yuan / ton.
Due to its large reserves and relatively stable prices, coal has become the preferred fuel for China's power production. In the first 50 years of this century, coal will still dominate China's primary energy mix. In August 2006, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the "Opinions on the Implementation of the Ten Energy-saving Projects for the Eleventh Five-Year Plan", which promoted a number of petroleum substitute products, including coal liquefaction to produce petroleum products, and provided strong policy support for coal-based oil production. . From the perspective of raw coal needed for coal-to-oil production, China’s coal-based oil itself has the advantages of both resource reserves and imports: First, China’s coal production accounts for 12.6% of the world’s total, ranking third in the world; The country reduced the import duty on coal from 3% to 5% to 1%, and the import cost of coal was reduced, which greatly encouraged the import of coal. The coal-to-oil project has no shortage of resources.
The development of coal-to-oil technology is in the ascendant. Coal-based oil is produced from coal as a raw material and processed through chemical processes. Coal oil technology can be divided into two major categories: coal direct liquefaction and indirect liquefaction oil production. The direct method coal consumption is low, 3 tons of coal out of 1 ton of oil, but the direct reaction conditions are harsh, the material requirements of the equipment is high; indirect method is about 5 tons of coal, 1 ton of oil. From the point of view of the coal-to-oil production process, indirect liquefaction oil production is technology-intensive and capital-intensive.
At present, South Africa only has an indirect coal-to-oil plant with an annual output of 8 million tons of oil products. It is the world's only large-scale commercial coal-to-oil plant and provides 60% of transportation oil to the country. In fact, developed countries such as the US, Japan, and Germany also have mature technologies, but none of them have invested in industrialized production. China and South Africa signed a cooperation memorandum of understanding on September 28, 2004. According to this memorandum, China’s two large-scale coal companies, Shenhua Group Co., Ltd. and Ningxia Coal Group Co., Ltd., will be in Shaanxi and Ningxia respectively, and South Africa’s Sasso Company. Co-construction of two coal indirect liquefaction plants. The first phase of the two indirect liquefaction plants will have an annual output of 3 million tons of oil, with a total investment of about 30 billion yuan. Through the introduction of technology and joint ventures with foreign countries, coal indirect liquefaction projects can fill domestic gaps and achieve the goal of reliably building coal-to-oil demonstration projects.
Shenhua Group is also building China's first large-scale coal direct liquefaction and oil production project. At present, there is no coal direct liquefaction industrial production facility in the world. After the Shenhua Group's coal direct liquefaction project is completed, it will be the world's first commercial demonstration plant for direct liquefaction of coal. The device was officially opened at the end of August 2004 in Ordos, Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region. The total construction scale of Shenhua Coal Direct Liquefaction Project is an annual output of 5 million tons of oil products, which will be constructed in two phases. The construction scale of the first phase of the project is an annual production of 3.2 million tons of oil products. It consists of three main production lines, including 14 main production devices, including coal liquefaction, coal hydrogen production, solvent hydrogenation, hydrogenation upgrading, and catalyst preparation. The main site of the first phase covers an area of ​​186 hectares, and the off-site project covers an area of ​​177 hectares. The total investment is 24.5 billion yuan. After completion and production, the coal consumption will be 9.7 million tons per year, and 3.2 million tons of various oil products can be produced, of which 50 are gasoline. 10,000 tons, 2.15 million tons of diesel, 310,000 tons of liquefied gas, and 240,000 tons of benzene, mixed xylene, etc. In order to effectively avoid and reduce risks, the project adopts a step-by-step implementation plan. First, it builds a production line, and after the installation is running smoothly, it builds other production lines.
According to Shenhua’s idea, China must strive for 15 years to produce 50 million tons of coal-based oil products, equivalent to 1 million barrels of oil, and then produce 20 million tons of alternative energy through biofuels, thereby reaching an alternative scale of 70 million tons. If China adds 200 million tons of oil produced by itself, it is 270 million tons, and the demand forecast for 2020 is 450 million tons of oil. This basically can control China's oil dependence on foreign countries at around 50%.
Coal oil must avoid three major risks In the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan†of the Coal Industry announced in January 2007, the government proposed to “promote the construction of coal conversion demonstration projects and promote the construction of coal liquefaction demonstration projectsâ€, requiring “ten. During the 1st five-year period, the demonstration of industrialization of coal liquefaction and coal-to-olefin production was completed, laying the foundation for industrial development in the next decade. In the notice issued by the State Council on the Comprehensive Work Program for Energy-saving and Emission Reduction issued not long ago, the State once again stated that it will steadily develop alternative energy sources, formulate mid- and long-term plans for the development of alternative energy, and promote direct and indirect liquefaction of coal and coal-based Alcohol ethers and olefins to replace oil large sets of demonstration projects and technical reserves. At the same time, state leaders have issued instructions that require the National Development and Reform Commission to conduct investigations, clarify the direction of alternative energy development, and properly select directions and priorities. Premier Wen Jiabao of the State Council visited the site of the Shenhua direct liquefaction project in Inner Mongolia and stated that “the Shenhua Group’s coal-to-oil project is an important part of the national energy security strategy and is also a major scientific and technological exploration.†At the same time, he also reminded, “We must respect the laws of science and The law of economy should be piloted first and it must not be allowed to rise."
In fact, from two to three years ago, CTL is a project that has been questioned in many ways in China. Technical immatureness, huge investment, and possible impact on the environment and water resources have all become projects. The main risk of launching. Although there are still immature aspects of coal-to-oil technology, factors that really restrict the development of this industry are not. The future difficulty of the coal liquefaction project is how to reduce the consumption of water resources and protect the sustainable development of the environment. According to data provided by experts, Shenhua Coal Direct Liquefaction Project can convert 1 ton of oil for every 3 to 4 tons of coal, and it needs to consume 8 to 9 tons of water. During this period, it also consumes a lot of electric power, and it needs to build a 150,000-kilowatt auxiliary power plant. Indirect liquefaction consumes more resources, and water consumption is 1.5 times that of direct liquefaction.
As for the question of pollution of coal-to-oil projects, it is not without reason. The production process of coal-to-oil will emit large amounts of carbon dioxide, and the production of one ton of oil will require 7-8 tons of carbon dioxide. As a partner of Shenhua, South Africa’s Sasol Company has only made some attempts in terms of water saving and carbon dioxide emissions. Before 2012, developing countries such as China are likely to commit themselves to CO2 emission reduction, which will obviously have a direct impact on coal liquefaction projects such as Shenhua and Yankuang. Du Minghua, dean of the coal chemical branch of the Coal Research Institute, hopes that outsiders will be able to watch the pollution of coal-to-oil projects. He said that the most important thing for China is to reduce the emission of sulfur dioxide. He said that in terms of air pollution, power plants are much more serious than coal liquefaction projects; in terms of water consumption, both chemical fertilizers and coal-to-methanol are also higher than coal-to-oil. Shenhua has already stated that the factories they built are completely clean and will achieve zero emissions and recycling of wastewater and waste residues.
In addition to water resources and environmental risks, the economic risks of coal-to-oil are also constantly mentioned. Hu Jinglin, director of the Department of Economic Development of the Ministry of Finance, once stated that whether China's coal-to-liquids industry can develop will ultimately depend on the market, including the market supply and demand for oil prices, coal prices, and water prices.
Formulating a coal-to-oil development strategy that suits the national conditions For all of the just-started coal-to-oil industry, everyone said that it is better and more dangerous. Therefore, we must maintain a cautious attitude toward coal-based oil production. First of all, coal is also a non-renewable resource, so in the long run, the essence of coal-to-liquids is “to replace another scarce resource with a scarce resourceâ€; second, coal-to-liquids not only has a huge investment, but also faces the international crude oil market. The price and the risk of domestic coal price fluctuations; Finally, coal-based oil production will bring more serious environmental pollution, especially carbon dioxide pollution, but also subject to water constraints. Therefore, the formulation of a strategy for the development of coal-based oil that suits China’s national conditions will enable coal-to-oil projects to take a healthy track.
First, we must do a master plan to guide development. The state must actively prepare the overall plan of the coal-to-oil industry and expand it on a pilot basis to avoid investment risks. It is necessary to consider the bearing capacity of resources, ecology, and the environment in the production areas in an all-round manner and effectively formulate a medium- and long-term development. Planning to achieve overall planning, rational layout, scientific guidance and standard development.
Second, we must first demonstrate and then promote. Two to three sets of industrialized demonstration devices can be built before further application can be achieved after successful experience is achieved.
Third, continue to increase scientific research, improve and improve coal-to-oil technology, and fundamentally reduce the risks associated with costs.
Fourth, the overall scale of the coal-to-oil industry should be at a relatively good balance point to meet the development scale requirements of the coal-to-oil industry;
Finally, we must encourage large enterprises like Shenhua to pilot the coal-to-oil projects. The state must provide certain support and strengthen its ability to resist risks, making it another solid backing for the national oil strategy. At the same time, it is forbidden for small enterprises to build coal-to-oil projects. This is a result of comprehensive considerations in various aspects such as economic benefits, environmental protection, and a harmonious society.
Coal-to-oil is an important trend in China's energy strategy Since the 1970s, countries all over the world have learned lessons from multiple oil crises and generally established a complete oil security system. In order to respond to sudden oil supply disruptions, developed countries generally reserve the equivalent of 90 days of oil imports, and Japan and the United States have more than six months of oil reserves. China is the only country with no strategic oil reserves. If oil supply is interrupted in the short term, the consequences will be disastrous. To ensure the safety of oil, the inclusion of coal-based oil as a strategic energy reserve project is an important trend in China's energy strategy. At present, high and rising oil prices have pushed coal to a strategic turning point.
In a relatively long period of time, China’s crude oil output can only be maintained at the level of 160-170 million tons/year, and China has become the second largest consumer of oil. In order to solve the problem that China's oil supply is in short supply, increasing imports is a way, and coal-based oil production is self-sufficient and more economical. It is predicted that by 2020, China's oil shortage will be about 200 million tons, and in addition to 120 million tons of imports, the coal-to-oil technology can solve 60 million to 80 million tons, with an investment of about 500 billion yuan. 300 billion to 400 billion yuan. Among them, indirect liquefied synthetic oil can produce more than 20 million tons, investment about 160 billion yuan, annual output value of about 100 billion yuan. From the perspective of economic efficiency, a coal-to-oil production enterprise with a construction scale of 500,000 tons/year adopts the evaluation standard of crude oil price of not less than US$25, and the internal rate of return can reach 8% to 12%. The price of diesel products can be controlled. In the 2,000 yuan / ton.
Due to its large reserves and relatively stable prices, coal has become the preferred fuel for China's power production. In the first 50 years of this century, coal will still dominate China's primary energy mix. In August 2006, the National Development and Reform Commission issued the "Opinions on the Implementation of the Ten Energy-saving Projects for the Eleventh Five-Year Plan", which promoted a number of petroleum substitute products, including coal liquefaction to produce petroleum products, and provided strong policy support for coal-based oil production. . From the perspective of raw coal needed for coal-to-oil production, China’s coal-based oil itself has the advantages of both resource reserves and imports: First, China’s coal production accounts for 12.6% of the world’s total, ranking third in the world; The country reduced the import duty on coal from 3% to 5% to 1%, and the import cost of coal was reduced, which greatly encouraged the import of coal. The coal-to-oil project has no shortage of resources.
The development of coal-to-oil technology is in the ascendant. Coal-based oil is produced from coal as a raw material and processed through chemical processes. Coal oil technology can be divided into two major categories: coal direct liquefaction and indirect liquefaction oil production. The direct method coal consumption is low, 3 tons of coal out of 1 ton of oil, but the direct reaction conditions are harsh, the material requirements of the equipment is high; indirect method is about 5 tons of coal, 1 ton of oil. From the point of view of the coal-to-oil production process, indirect liquefaction oil production is technology-intensive and capital-intensive.
At present, South Africa only has an indirect coal-to-oil plant with an annual output of 8 million tons of oil products. It is the world's only large-scale commercial coal-to-oil plant and provides 60% of transportation oil to the country. In fact, developed countries such as the US, Japan, and Germany also have mature technologies, but none of them have invested in industrialized production. China and South Africa signed a cooperation memorandum of understanding on September 28, 2004. According to this memorandum, China’s two large-scale coal companies, Shenhua Group Co., Ltd. and Ningxia Coal Group Co., Ltd., will be in Shaanxi and Ningxia respectively, and South Africa’s Sasso Company. Co-construction of two coal indirect liquefaction plants. The first phase of the two indirect liquefaction plants will have an annual output of 3 million tons of oil, with a total investment of about 30 billion yuan. Through the introduction of technology and joint ventures with foreign countries, coal indirect liquefaction projects can fill domestic gaps and achieve the goal of reliably building coal-to-oil demonstration projects.
Shenhua Group is also building China's first large-scale coal direct liquefaction and oil production project. At present, there is no coal direct liquefaction industrial production facility in the world. After the Shenhua Group's coal direct liquefaction project is completed, it will be the world's first commercial demonstration plant for direct liquefaction of coal. The device was officially opened at the end of August 2004 in Ordos, Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region. The total construction scale of Shenhua Coal Direct Liquefaction Project is an annual output of 5 million tons of oil products, which will be constructed in two phases. The construction scale of the first phase of the project is an annual production of 3.2 million tons of oil products. It consists of three main production lines, including 14 main production devices, including coal liquefaction, coal hydrogen production, solvent hydrogenation, hydrogenation upgrading, and catalyst preparation. The main site of the first phase covers an area of ​​186 hectares, and the off-site project covers an area of ​​177 hectares. The total investment is 24.5 billion yuan. After completion and production, the coal consumption will be 9.7 million tons per year, and 3.2 million tons of various oil products can be produced, of which 50 are gasoline. 10,000 tons, 2.15 million tons of diesel, 310,000 tons of liquefied gas, and 240,000 tons of benzene, mixed xylene, etc. In order to effectively avoid and reduce risks, the project adopts a step-by-step implementation plan. First, it builds a production line, and after the installation is running smoothly, it builds other production lines.
According to Shenhua’s idea, China must strive for 15 years to produce 50 million tons of coal-based oil products, equivalent to 1 million barrels of oil, and then produce 20 million tons of alternative energy through biofuels, thereby reaching an alternative scale of 70 million tons. If China adds 200 million tons of oil produced by itself, it is 270 million tons, and the demand forecast for 2020 is 450 million tons of oil. This basically can control China's oil dependence on foreign countries at around 50%.
Coal oil must avoid three major risks In the “Eleventh Five-Year Plan†of the Coal Industry announced in January 2007, the government proposed to “promote the construction of coal conversion demonstration projects and promote the construction of coal liquefaction demonstration projectsâ€, requiring “ten. During the 1st five-year period, the demonstration of industrialization of coal liquefaction and coal-to-olefin production was completed, laying the foundation for industrial development in the next decade. In the notice issued by the State Council on the Comprehensive Work Program for Energy-saving and Emission Reduction issued not long ago, the State once again stated that it will steadily develop alternative energy sources, formulate mid- and long-term plans for the development of alternative energy, and promote direct and indirect liquefaction of coal and coal-based Alcohol ethers and olefins to replace oil large sets of demonstration projects and technical reserves. At the same time, state leaders have issued instructions that require the National Development and Reform Commission to conduct investigations, clarify the direction of alternative energy development, and properly select directions and priorities. Premier Wen Jiabao of the State Council visited the site of the Shenhua direct liquefaction project in Inner Mongolia and stated that “the Shenhua Group’s coal-to-oil project is an important part of the national energy security strategy and is also a major scientific and technological exploration.†At the same time, he also reminded, “We must respect the laws of science and The law of economy should be piloted first and it must not be allowed to rise."
In fact, from two to three years ago, CTL is a project that has been questioned in many ways in China. Technical immatureness, huge investment, and possible impact on the environment and water resources have all become projects. The main risk of launching. Although there are still immature aspects of coal-to-oil technology, factors that really restrict the development of this industry are not. The future difficulty of the coal liquefaction project is how to reduce the consumption of water resources and protect the sustainable development of the environment. According to data provided by experts, Shenhua Coal Direct Liquefaction Project can convert 1 ton of oil for every 3 to 4 tons of coal, and it needs to consume 8 to 9 tons of water. During this period, it also consumes a lot of electric power, and it needs to build a 150,000-kilowatt auxiliary power plant. Indirect liquefaction consumes more resources, and water consumption is 1.5 times that of direct liquefaction.
As for the question of pollution of coal-to-oil projects, it is not without reason. The production process of coal-to-oil will emit large amounts of carbon dioxide, and the production of one ton of oil will require 7-8 tons of carbon dioxide. As a partner of Shenhua, South Africa’s Sasol Company has only made some attempts in terms of water saving and carbon dioxide emissions. Before 2012, developing countries such as China are likely to commit themselves to CO2 emission reduction, which will obviously have a direct impact on coal liquefaction projects such as Shenhua and Yankuang. Du Minghua, dean of the coal chemical branch of the Coal Research Institute, hopes that outsiders will be able to watch the pollution of coal-to-oil projects. He said that the most important thing for China is to reduce the emission of sulfur dioxide. He said that in terms of air pollution, power plants are much more serious than coal liquefaction projects; in terms of water consumption, both chemical fertilizers and coal-to-methanol are also higher than coal-to-oil. Shenhua has already stated that the factories they built are completely clean and will achieve zero emissions and recycling of wastewater and waste residues.
In addition to water resources and environmental risks, the economic risks of coal-to-oil are also constantly mentioned. Hu Jinglin, director of the Department of Economic Development of the Ministry of Finance, once stated that whether China's coal-to-liquids industry can develop will ultimately depend on the market, including the market supply and demand for oil prices, coal prices, and water prices.
Formulating a coal-to-oil development strategy that suits the national conditions For all of the just-started coal-to-oil industry, everyone said that it is better and more dangerous. Therefore, we must maintain a cautious attitude toward coal-based oil production. First of all, coal is also a non-renewable resource, so in the long run, the essence of coal-to-liquids is “to replace another scarce resource with a scarce resourceâ€; second, coal-to-liquids not only has a huge investment, but also faces the international crude oil market. The price and the risk of domestic coal price fluctuations; Finally, coal-based oil production will bring more serious environmental pollution, especially carbon dioxide pollution, but also subject to water constraints. Therefore, the formulation of a strategy for the development of coal-based oil that suits China’s national conditions will enable coal-to-oil projects to take a healthy track.
First, we must do a master plan to guide development. The state must actively prepare the overall plan of the coal-to-oil industry and expand it on a pilot basis to avoid investment risks. It is necessary to consider the bearing capacity of resources, ecology, and the environment in the production areas in an all-round manner and effectively formulate a medium- and long-term development. Planning to achieve overall planning, rational layout, scientific guidance and standard development.
Second, we must first demonstrate and then promote. Two to three sets of industrialized demonstration devices can be built before further application can be achieved after successful experience is achieved.
Third, continue to increase scientific research, improve and improve coal-to-oil technology, and fundamentally reduce the risks associated with costs.
Fourth, the overall scale of the coal-to-oil industry should be at a relatively good balance point to meet the development scale requirements of the coal-to-oil industry;
Finally, we must encourage large enterprises like Shenhua to pilot the coal-to-oil projects. The state must provide certain support and strengthen its ability to resist risks, making it another solid backing for the national oil strategy. At the same time, it is forbidden for small enterprises to build coal-to-oil projects. This is a result of comprehensive considerations in various aspects such as economic benefits, environmental protection, and a harmonious society.
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