In 2009, the Chinese auto market showed a spurt of growth, and the implementation of many favorable policies undoubtedly became an important force. Whether it is the country’s 4 trillion investment, or the purchase of tax incentives, the car to the countryside and other policies, the development of the Chinese auto industry in 2009 is doomed to be marked with “policy-driven†branding. After experiencing the heavy losses caused by the financial crisis in 2008, the commercial vehicle market in 2009 experienced a sustained downturn in two quarters. As the "4 trillion yuan" investment in the market spurred on, it finally ended in July and the sales volume decreased. The use of the car strides forward, began the "trotting slow recovery" type of growth.
A well-known domestic heavy truck company CEO once mentioned to reporters that although the country has introduced a “4 trillion†investment plan, and that commercial vehicle companies across the country have given great hope, many of the “4 trillion†investment projects have been invested. To do scientific research, environmental assessment, and certification, but also tender, and then put into construction, which takes some time. Therefore, the pulling effect on the commercial vehicle market lags behind. Therefore, it is believed that the commercial vehicle market in China will enter a very good development period in the next two years.
However, although the prospects for the future development of commercial vehicles in China are robust, they should mainly be attributed to the measures included in the government’s 4 trillion economic stimulus plan that can boost market growth. At present, due to the increasing degree of internationalization of the domestic market, foreign commercial vehicle giants have increased their investment in the Chinese market. Although China’s independent brands still have a large advantage in commercial vehicles , the market will add a lot of variables if it excludes favorable policy factors. . However, if domestic companies rely excessively on national policy support and refuse to “weanâ€, they only seek short-term benefits, do not pay attention to their own structural adjustments and changes in development methods, and must be eliminated by the market under the trend of merger and reorganization of domestic automobile enterprises.
The pulling effect of macro policies in 2010 will be fully released. Enterprises can no longer rely on cost advantages to eat old books.
Compared with passenger vehicles, commercial vehicles are more closely linked to the country’s macroeconomic development, and related institutions have given a certain amount of assurance to domestic commercial vehicle companies that the Chinese economy will grow by 9% in 2010. In 2009, affected by the country’s investment policy of RMB 4 trillion, especially the increase in infrastructure construction, domestic heavy-duty vehicles and special-purpose vehicle industries showed a recovery trend at the end of 2009. Due to the lagging effect of commercial vehicle demand and investment, the pulling effect of infrastructure construction such as roads, railways, aviation, real estate, etc., brought by 4 trillion investment after continuous implementation over a year will be obtained this year. Fully released.
Since the Central Government announced the implementation of the “4 trillion†investment plan in November 2008, according to the plan, the total investment of the central government in 2009 was 908 billion yuan. In 2010, the central government plans to add 588.5 billion yuan, plus the fifth batch of investment that has not yet been issued, is expected to reach more than 700 billion yuan in total. In response, relevant officials of the National Development and Reform Commission stated in an interview with the media that out of the “4 trillion†investment plan, a part of the central government’s 487.5 billion yuan of new investment scheduled to be implemented in 2009 will be carried forward to 2010 and will be issued in 2010. There are still many projects under construction. The central government has not planned to reduce the "4 trillion" investment. It is understood that among the RMB 4 trillion investment, the basic construction investment for the construction of affordable housing projects, rural infrastructure, major infrastructure such as railways, highways and airports, and post-earthquake reconstruction work in the earthquake-stricken areas will be 1.5 trillion yuan, accounting for the total investment. 37.5%.
Under the stimulation of a large macroeconomic policy, this year's commercial vehicle market will undoubtedly grow steadily. Various commercial vehicle companies have already begun to expand their production capacity in order to seize policy opportunities to achieve sales growth. However, the reporter believes that the current commercial vehicle market is still in a period of recoverable growth, and companies can no longer rely on their cost advantage to continue to “sitâ€. At present, foreign commercial vehicle giants have increased their investment in China under the favorable conditions of domestic macroeconomic policies, which will inevitably intensify competition in the commercial vehicle market. Therefore, under the current situation that China's self-owned brands of commercial vehicles still have obvious advantages, enterprises must rely on technological innovation and must take the path of developing independent innovation on the basis of building their own brands.
There are still uncertainties in related industrial policies. Enterprises should optimize the industrial chain structure in a timely manner to improve competitiveness.
With the promotion of the country’s macroeconomic policies, the related industries of commercial vehicles have also released positive information. In 2010, China's railways, highways, and rural infrastructure will enter the peak of construction. Among them, China’s railways will increase the construction of high-speed railways this year, and the average annual investment in railway construction will be over 700 billion in the next three years. According to the highest pulling effect of 1:10 for railway investment and related industries, China’s investment in railway construction in the next three years will generate at least RMB 7 trillion economic effect each year. In terms of highways, China will also accelerate the construction of key highway projects such as the National Expressway Network this year.
In March 2009, the State Council promulgated the “Regulations for the Adjustment and Revitalization of the Logistics Industryâ€, but the details of the “Planning†have not yet been announced. Recently, the person in charge of the relevant organization disclosed in an interview with the media that after more than three months of research, China’s logistics and The Purchasing Federation has already submitted 40 recommendations to the relevant state departments. The relevant state departments will timely issue the "Planning" Rules based on the recommendations. The content of the future development of the logistics industry proposed in the "Planning" is the planning and construction of rural logistics and logistics parks. Commercial vehicles are an indispensable means of transportation for the development of the logistics industry. With the introduction of the "Planning" rules in the future, there will be Stimulate growth in demand for logistics vehicles.
In terms of real estate, some institutions expect that the national real estate development investment in 2010 will increase by 25% year-on-year, which is higher than in 2009. Driven by the steady growth of investment in development, the new construction area and construction area will have a stable recovery, and the speed of development and construction will gradually increase. The Ministry of Housing and Urban Development proposed that more than 900 billion yuan will be invested by the central and local governments in the period of 2009-2011 for the construction of affordable housing projects.
Although many commercial vehicle related industries have increased their efforts in policy investment in 2010, due to the large number of commercial vehicle related industries, such as the steel industry, due to the large amount of steel for commercial vehicles , although China has introduced the revitalization plan for the steel industry, However, due to the fluctuation of international steel prices, it will still bring uncertainties to the cost structure of commercial vehicle companies. The volatility of oil prices also has a certain impact on the demand of users for products. In addition, with the continuous promotion of the concept of low-carbon economy, the country's requirements for vehicle emission standards and corporate energy conservation and emission reduction are continuously increasing. How to reduce energy consumption will also become one of the major factors affecting the development of commercial vehicles. Therefore, the reporter believes that although the favorable development prospects of related industries this year are very stimulating for the commercial vehicle market, how to optimize the industrial chain structure and further reduce the adverse effects of uncertainties in steel and related industries will become commercial vehicle companies. The problem that had to face in 2010.
Industry policy pulling effect will continue the company should stand firm on the domestic market cautious "going out"
This year, China raised the standard for subsidies for replacement of cars. Among them, the subsidy standards for heavy, medium, light, and mini trucks were adjusted to 18,000 yuan, 13,000 yuan, 9,000 yuan, and 6,000 yuan, respectively; large, medium, small, and miniature passenger cars were adjusted to 18,000 yuan, 11,000 yuan, and 7,000 yuan respectively. ,5000 yuan. In addition, the owners who have participated in the trade-in will be reissued according to the new standard. According to the calculation of relevant agencies, the subsidy ratio of light trucks and micro-cards after the adjustment is the largest, at around 20%, followed by medium- and micro-vehicles, at about 15%; the subsidy ratio for heavy trucks, large and medium passengers, and sub-1.35L cars is 10%. About %; 1.35L or more cars have the lowest percentage of subsidies. From the perspective of subsidies, commercial vehicles benefit more.
In addition, at the beginning of 2009, the “Automobile to the Countryside†policy promulgated by the State stipulated that from March 1st to December 31st, 2009, farmers should purchase light-duty trucks and minivans to provide a 10% economic subsidy for the vehicle price. 5000 yuan, a clear pull effect on commercial vehicles. A few days ago, our country decided to extend the automobile to the countryside policy for one year until the end of this year. This is undoubtedly a great advantage for commercial vehicle companies.
Since the launch of the automotive industry revitalization plan, China’s auto market has seen a boom in the international auto market in a downturn, and it seems that the annual sales of over 13 million vehicles have already become established facts. As stated by the above-mentioned CEO of a heavy truck company, for commercial vehicles, whether it is the macroeconomic level or the influence of related industries, the Chinese commercial vehicle market will enter a very good development period in the next two years. The reporter believes that China's auto market is still the world's largest auto consumer market, and its degree of internationalization is no less than that of any developed country market. As the passenger vehicle market is dominated by multinational companies, the domestic commercial vehicle market is still dominated by independent brands. However, it can be seen that in 2009 the world’s commercial vehicle giants including Volvo, Mercedes-Benz, and Mankind have accelerated their penetration in the domestic market. At present, under the influence of the global financial crisis, the market has become China’s most valuable and most desired resource for multinational corporations. China’s commercial vehicle companies need to be firmly established in the domestic market under the encouragement of many favorable policies, and be cautious on this basis. "Going out" to achieve market diversification strategy. It is believed that "the opportunities for future trucking companies to restructure Chinese companies will be less than the opportunities for Chinese trucks to restructure the world's trucks."
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