In the first quarter of this year, Jianghuai Automobile realized revenue of 8.851 billion yuan, an increase of 18.05% year-on-year; net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company was 208 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 93.07%, corresponding to an EPS of 0.16 yuan. As the company has previously announced the performance report, the final announcement of results is in line with the Express.
management analysis:
The profitability has improved significantly and it is expected to maintain steady growth and increase during the year. In the first quarter, the company sold 141,900 vehicles, an increase of 23.39% year-on-year. The company's profit growth rate is as high as 93%. The reason for its growth in sales and revenue far exceeds the company's profitability. In the first quarter, the company's gross profit margin was 16.53%, an increase of 1.63 percentage points year-on-year, 1.71 percentage points higher than last year, and its net margin was 2.39% in the first quarter, 0.95 percentage points higher than the same period of last year and 0.66 higher than last year. Percentage.
We believe that the reason for the improvement in profitability of the company is that the price of raw materials such as steel and rubber has dropped significantly since the beginning of this year. On the other hand, the company's efforts to promote “profit-centeredness†and strive to improve product structure and strengthen cost control are also important reasons. From these two points of view, as long as there is no substantial increase in raw material prices in the future, there is still room for the company to improve its profitability. This is also the key reason why we have always stressed that the company has greater upward flexibility.
MPV sales resumed growth, and the proportion of high-end products has been improved. From 2011 to 2012, the sales volume of the company's MPVs all declined slightly. The good news is that this momentum has already been reversed. In the first quarter, the company’s MPV sales were 14,998 units, an increase of 12.11% year-on-year. More importantly, the company's MPV product structure is gradually improving. At present, the monthly sales of “Hechang†has reached 800 units, accounting for approximately 15% of the company’s MPV. According to the company's plan, the proportion of "He Chang" in the future will reach about 20%, and the profitability of the company's MPV business may continue to increase.
The growth rate of the truck business continues to exceed the industry, and the product structure will also increase. In the first quarter, the sales volume of the company's light trucks reached 60,600 units, an increase of 8.16% year-on-year, and the growth rate was significantly faster than the industry's -0.16%. The company's market share further increased to 12.33%. For heavy trucks, the company sold 7,187 vehicles in the first quarter, an increase of 1.35% year-on-year, while the overall growth rate of the industry was down 17.04%, and the company’s market share was 3.53%. In addition, the company will also focus on increasing the proportion of mid- to high-end products and increase the profitability of trucks, especially light trucks. The vertical replacement of the company's high-end light truck product “Shuai Ling†has been completed, and the market promotion work is gradually accelerating. We expect the company's light truck profitability will continue to increase.
The sales of cars are growing rapidly, and the impact of the 3.15 incident will be reduced. In the first quarter, the company’s car sales reached 43,695 units, a year-on-year increase of 43%, which is the dominant force in the company’s sales growth. Since the second quarter is the off-season sales season, and the Tongyue corrosion incident that occurred in March still has a certain negative impact on the sales volume of the company's sedan, we expect the company's sedan sales growth rate may decline significantly in the second quarter. However, from a year-round perspective, the company has already adopted a series of measures that have been positively evaluated by all parties. Tongyue itself is no longer the flagship brand of the company's sedan (Tongyue's modified model has been renamed as Yue A13). We expect this to happen. The impact of the incident will not last long, and sales of the company's sedan is expected to fully return to normal in the second half of the year. From a prudent standpoint, our forecasted company’s annual sales of cars were 144,000, an increase of only 4% year-on-year.
The new models are rich in reserves and have a solid foundation for continued rapid growth. At the Shanghai Auto Show held recently, we saw that the company's new vehicle models are rich in reserves and have formed a preliminary platform and serialized layout. The company's first-generation models have laid a certain customer base, and the launch of second-generation models is poised to take off. From this, it can be seen that there is a solid foundation for the rapid growth of the company's business in at least the next 1-2 years.
profit prediction:
As the company's profitability improvement in the first quarter exceeded the general expectation, we slightly raised our earnings forecast. The forecasted company's 2013-2015 net profit was 9.00, 14.11, and 1.669 billion yuan, up 83.54%, 56.82%, and 18.27% year-on-year, respectively, and the corresponding EPS were 0.70, 1.10, and 1.30 yuan, respectively.
Investment Advice:
Affected by the 3.15 incident of Tongyue, the stock price of the company had fallen below 6 yuan. We released a research report in a timely manner, prompting that “the impact of Tongyue is within the acceptable range†and the stock price of the company “has regained the value of buyingâ€. At present, the company's stock price is 7.74 yuan, corresponding to 11.06, 7.04, and 5.95 times PE for 13-15 years. If only from the impact of the impact of the emergency recovery, the company's valuation has returned to a reasonable level.
However, considering the medium and long-term considerations, we believe that the company is still a typical turning point company. It still meets the definition of “better performance improvement and greater upward flexibilityâ€, and the company’s quarterly report has begun to verify our judgment. . We maintain the company's "buy" rating. The first target price for the year is 11 yuan (corresponding to 15 times PE in 13 years or 10 times PE in the next year), suggesting that the current price level can still be firmly held and gradually overweight.
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