China's auto production and sales were 16,870,300 units and 16,815,600 units respectively, an increase of 2.00% and 2.56% year-on-year. The National Information Center estimates that the overall growth rate of the Chinese auto market in 2011 was 3.3%, the lowest since 1999.
Xu Changming, a senior economist at the National Information Center, said that there are two major factors that contributed to this year's rapid decline in car sales growth: In macroeconomic terms, the impact of the government’s monetary tightening policy and the declining overall economic growth have caused the automotive industry to suffer a greater impact; On the other hand, the collective withdrawal of multiple incentive policies undoubtedly aggravated the decline in the growth rate of the auto industry.
Although this year's overall sales cannot break through the 20 million mark expected by many institutions at the beginning of the year, China still maintains its position as the “global first marketâ€. In the ten years after its accession to the WTO, the fastest-growing and highly-respected auto industry has become a “major proposition†in 2011.
20 Million Dream Passages In 2009, China's auto sales increased by 46%; in 2010, sales continued to grow at a high rate, increasing by 34%; in 2011, the growth rate of the auto market sales dropped sharply, with an annual growth rate of only about 3%. China's auto industry The dream of jumping to 20 million steps was shattered.
Such market performance is undoubtedly eye-popping, even to the industry's insiders. Dong Yang, secretary general of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (hereinafter referred to as the China Automobile Association), said that the repeated miscalculations in the growth rate of China's auto industry are unexpected. It can be said that it is a mistake.
At the beginning of 2011, China Automobile Association expects sales growth for the current year to be 10% to 15%, which has already shrunk dramatically compared with the growth rate of more than 30% for the past two years. After half a year's observation, in October, the China Automobile Association adjusted this expectation to less than 5%.
Dong Yang's analysis believes that the CAFA's forecast for growth at the beginning of the year is due to the fact that the withdrawal of the country's supportive policy is taken into account, so the growth figure is reduced to a relatively low level. However, it did not estimate the impact of the external and macro-control aspects such as the Japan earthquake, the new policy on car subsidies, and the impact on the auto market, so it made adjustments afterwards, but it is clear that the 5% forecast is also too optimistic.
Analysts told reporters that the most obvious effect of the policy is micro-passenger models, micro-customer market fell by nearly 10% year-on-year.
In terms of product structure, Xu Changming told reporters that high-level vehicles maintained a good development situation and the development of low-level vehicles was hindered. This is a structural feature that is different from the previous years of regulation. In terms of models, the most prominent feature is that the luxury car market maintains a market growth rate of more than 30%. Luxury cars represented by the German top three are making every effort to increase the production capacity in the Chinese market, and even the “production-decided sales volume†has emerged. The situation.
In this regard, analysts believe that the luxury car itself has a strong stability, that is, relatively small by the market and the policy, which is determined by the characteristics of luxury cars and consumers. It is for this reason that luxury car companies will continue to accelerate domestic production in the coming years.
Correspondingly, self-owned brand companies have encountered unprecedented difficulties this year. Xu Changming analyzes that this is caused by the following three reasons: First, independent brands do not have the cost advantage brought by scale expansion, so when the cost rises, the self-owned brands are bound to face greater difficulties; Secondly, the joint ventures enter the independent brand area. This further increases the cost advantage. Third, the rising of oil price and other comprehensive costs will bring greater challenges to independent brands.
Intensified market differentiation in 2012 For 2012, the expectations of the growth rate of China's auto market sales are different. Generally speaking, it is generally believed that it is impossible to achieve similar high growth in 2009 and 2010, and instead maintain stability.
Recently, Rao Da, Secretary General of the National Passenger Vehicles Association, predicts that the growth rate of China's automobile sales in 2012 will be around 5%. This is due to the fact that the downturn in the auto market this year provides the basis for a slight increase next year, but apparently there is no driving force to make the auto market rebound in 2012.
The analysis of the National Information Center is relatively optimistic. Based on the fact that the Chinese auto market has entered a second high-speed growth period, the overall growth rate of the Chinese auto market in 2012 is expected to be close to 10%. Among them, the passenger car is still the focus of growth, the growth rate of up to about 10%, while micro-offers, commercial vehicles are expected to achieve growth.
In terms of industrial policy, Xu Changming predicts that no overall policy to encourage and limit total sales will be introduced in 2012.
In 2012, the continuous market adjustment will inevitably lead to more intense competition in the automotive industry. According to the analysis, the average profit rate of the industry has fallen, with the stronger and the weaker being weaker. Therefore, it is more important to maintain stable profits, increase market share, and increase strength.
Xu Changming told reporters that in the past joint ventures and some independent manufacturers that emphasized the expansion of scale have basically won, and in the future, they must seek a balance between scale and strength to win. "From big to strong" is no longer a topic, but a cruel competition that must be faced.
In terms of self-owned brands, FAW, Dongfeng, SAIC, BAIC and Changan have all released their own brand strategies, and a number of self-owned brand models will be introduced to the market one after another. According to the analysis, in 2012, the competition of self-owned brands will shift from independent brands represented by Chery and Geely to large enterprise groups in the traditional sense.
At the same time, the high attention of multinational companies to the Chinese market has led to continuous and significant expansion of production capacity. Xu Changming told reporters that almost all multinational companies have won the world by winning the Chinese common philosophy. After FAW-Volkswagen became the third company to sell one million vehicles annually, Beijing Hyundai Motor and Dongfeng Nissan Motor Co., Ltd. have proposed the goal of selling more than one million vehicles in the next year at the end of the year. The sinking of market segments and sales networks will inevitably lead to more brutal competition.
"China Opportunity" in Market Transition
Wang Wei, general manager of Minsheng Bank’s automotive business department, told reporters that in 2011 China's auto market is not facing an inflection point but is returning to a rational growth. In the future, as China's auto market matures, low-speed growth will become a trend.
Feng Fei, Minister of Industry and Economic Research at the Development Research Center of the State Council, emphasized that the sustainable development of China's auto industry should combine the improvement of the energy efficiency of traditional vehicles with the development of new energy vehicles.
In addition, Jia Xinguang told reporters that the market transition period is full of opportunities for China's auto companies, while there are many pressures. After market adjustment, self-owned brand enterprises reshuffled their brands instead of today's "big and complicated" competition.
He said that the joint venture has very little chance of leaving its own brand. As technological upgrading takes time and financial support, the biggest challenge for self-owned brand companies is not only to compete with the joint venture, but more importantly, to ensure the integrity of the capital chain. In addition, overseas markets have become the choice of many independent brand companies.
Xu Changming, a senior economist at the National Information Center, said that there are two major factors that contributed to this year's rapid decline in car sales growth: In macroeconomic terms, the impact of the government’s monetary tightening policy and the declining overall economic growth have caused the automotive industry to suffer a greater impact; On the other hand, the collective withdrawal of multiple incentive policies undoubtedly aggravated the decline in the growth rate of the auto industry.
Although this year's overall sales cannot break through the 20 million mark expected by many institutions at the beginning of the year, China still maintains its position as the “global first marketâ€. In the ten years after its accession to the WTO, the fastest-growing and highly-respected auto industry has become a “major proposition†in 2011.
20 Million Dream Passages In 2009, China's auto sales increased by 46%; in 2010, sales continued to grow at a high rate, increasing by 34%; in 2011, the growth rate of the auto market sales dropped sharply, with an annual growth rate of only about 3%. China's auto industry The dream of jumping to 20 million steps was shattered.
Such market performance is undoubtedly eye-popping, even to the industry's insiders. Dong Yang, secretary general of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (hereinafter referred to as the China Automobile Association), said that the repeated miscalculations in the growth rate of China's auto industry are unexpected. It can be said that it is a mistake.
At the beginning of 2011, China Automobile Association expects sales growth for the current year to be 10% to 15%, which has already shrunk dramatically compared with the growth rate of more than 30% for the past two years. After half a year's observation, in October, the China Automobile Association adjusted this expectation to less than 5%.
Dong Yang's analysis believes that the CAFA's forecast for growth at the beginning of the year is due to the fact that the withdrawal of the country's supportive policy is taken into account, so the growth figure is reduced to a relatively low level. However, it did not estimate the impact of the external and macro-control aspects such as the Japan earthquake, the new policy on car subsidies, and the impact on the auto market, so it made adjustments afterwards, but it is clear that the 5% forecast is also too optimistic.
Analysts told reporters that the most obvious effect of the policy is micro-passenger models, micro-customer market fell by nearly 10% year-on-year.
In terms of product structure, Xu Changming told reporters that high-level vehicles maintained a good development situation and the development of low-level vehicles was hindered. This is a structural feature that is different from the previous years of regulation. In terms of models, the most prominent feature is that the luxury car market maintains a market growth rate of more than 30%. Luxury cars represented by the German top three are making every effort to increase the production capacity in the Chinese market, and even the “production-decided sales volume†has emerged. The situation.
In this regard, analysts believe that the luxury car itself has a strong stability, that is, relatively small by the market and the policy, which is determined by the characteristics of luxury cars and consumers. It is for this reason that luxury car companies will continue to accelerate domestic production in the coming years.
Correspondingly, self-owned brand companies have encountered unprecedented difficulties this year. Xu Changming analyzes that this is caused by the following three reasons: First, independent brands do not have the cost advantage brought by scale expansion, so when the cost rises, the self-owned brands are bound to face greater difficulties; Secondly, the joint ventures enter the independent brand area. This further increases the cost advantage. Third, the rising of oil price and other comprehensive costs will bring greater challenges to independent brands.
Intensified market differentiation in 2012 For 2012, the expectations of the growth rate of China's auto market sales are different. Generally speaking, it is generally believed that it is impossible to achieve similar high growth in 2009 and 2010, and instead maintain stability.
Recently, Rao Da, Secretary General of the National Passenger Vehicles Association, predicts that the growth rate of China's automobile sales in 2012 will be around 5%. This is due to the fact that the downturn in the auto market this year provides the basis for a slight increase next year, but apparently there is no driving force to make the auto market rebound in 2012.
The analysis of the National Information Center is relatively optimistic. Based on the fact that the Chinese auto market has entered a second high-speed growth period, the overall growth rate of the Chinese auto market in 2012 is expected to be close to 10%. Among them, the passenger car is still the focus of growth, the growth rate of up to about 10%, while micro-offers, commercial vehicles are expected to achieve growth.
In terms of industrial policy, Xu Changming predicts that no overall policy to encourage and limit total sales will be introduced in 2012.
In 2012, the continuous market adjustment will inevitably lead to more intense competition in the automotive industry. According to the analysis, the average profit rate of the industry has fallen, with the stronger and the weaker being weaker. Therefore, it is more important to maintain stable profits, increase market share, and increase strength.
Xu Changming told reporters that in the past joint ventures and some independent manufacturers that emphasized the expansion of scale have basically won, and in the future, they must seek a balance between scale and strength to win. "From big to strong" is no longer a topic, but a cruel competition that must be faced.
In terms of self-owned brands, FAW, Dongfeng, SAIC, BAIC and Changan have all released their own brand strategies, and a number of self-owned brand models will be introduced to the market one after another. According to the analysis, in 2012, the competition of self-owned brands will shift from independent brands represented by Chery and Geely to large enterprise groups in the traditional sense.
At the same time, the high attention of multinational companies to the Chinese market has led to continuous and significant expansion of production capacity. Xu Changming told reporters that almost all multinational companies have won the world by winning the Chinese common philosophy. After FAW-Volkswagen became the third company to sell one million vehicles annually, Beijing Hyundai Motor and Dongfeng Nissan Motor Co., Ltd. have proposed the goal of selling more than one million vehicles in the next year at the end of the year. The sinking of market segments and sales networks will inevitably lead to more brutal competition.
"China Opportunity" in Market Transition
Wang Wei, general manager of Minsheng Bank’s automotive business department, told reporters that in 2011 China's auto market is not facing an inflection point but is returning to a rational growth. In the future, as China's auto market matures, low-speed growth will become a trend.
Feng Fei, Minister of Industry and Economic Research at the Development Research Center of the State Council, emphasized that the sustainable development of China's auto industry should combine the improvement of the energy efficiency of traditional vehicles with the development of new energy vehicles.
In addition, Jia Xinguang told reporters that the market transition period is full of opportunities for China's auto companies, while there are many pressures. After market adjustment, self-owned brand enterprises reshuffled their brands instead of today's "big and complicated" competition.
He said that the joint venture has very little chance of leaving its own brand. As technological upgrading takes time and financial support, the biggest challenge for self-owned brand companies is not only to compete with the joint venture, but more importantly, to ensure the integrity of the capital chain. In addition, overseas markets have become the choice of many independent brand companies.
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