Methanol and acetic acid are direct upstream and downstream related products. It is reasonable to say that their price trends should be similar. However, in the first half of 2007, the domestic methanol market fell all the way, and the acetic acid market trend of the major downstream products was strong. After the market opened slightly at the beginning of the year, prices have been steadily rising. In May, the acetic acid market accelerated sharply. At the end of the month, the main market price has already stood at a high of 7,200 to 7,500 yuan (t price, the same below), setting a new high since last year, an increase of 1,700 yuan or an increase of nearly 30% since the beginning of this year. At the same time, the price of methanol fell by about 30%. The trend of this related product market going in the opposite direction is rather puzzled.
From the historical market analysis, the trend of methanol and acetic acid prices has been the same. In the past 10 years, the low price area of ​​acetic acid appeared in 1998-2002, which is similar to the price track of methanol, and the lowest price point of both is the same in 1999. Since 2003, the price of methanol has gradually increased, and the focus of acetic acid prices has also gradually increased. Both of them have the same trend of price changes.
However, since 2004, the acetic acid market has begun to diverge gradually with the methanol market, the price trend is not completely corresponding to methanol, often out of an independent market. For example, in 2004 and 2005, when the methanol market price was operating in the mid-range of 2,400-2,700 yuan, the price of acetic acid rose to a high-priced area of ​​more than 8,000 yuan; in the third quarter of 2006, the price of methanol was 3,000. At a high price of ~ 4,000 yuan, the price of acetic acid was only hovering in the mid-price range of 5,000 to 5,500 yuan.
This year's acetic acid market can get rid of the constraints of the methanol market downturn, out of the hot market contrary to it? The author analyzes there are three main reasons.
The first is influenced by the international market conditions. China's acetic acid production is insufficient, and it needs to be supplemented by imports. However, in the 1990s, the proportion of imported acetic acid accounted for a small proportion of the total demand, and most of the years were between 10% and 15%. After entering the 21st century, the economic development has promoted the growth of demand, the market demand gap has increased, and the import volume of acetic acid has increased rapidly. In 2006, the total amount of acetic acid imports in China reached 710,000 tons, accounting for 33% of the total demand. With the increase in imports, the international acetic acid price has gradually increased its influence on the domestic market. From 2004 to 2005, when the price of Far East acetic acid rose to the peak of more than 700 US dollars, the domestic price of acetic acid also rose to more than 8,000 yuan, and this year, the tight supply of acetic acid in Asia increased steadily, and the domestic acetic acid market maintained the same trend. The domestic price of acetic acid is not only affected by the raw material methanol market, but also affected by the international price change of acetic acid, and to a certain extent, the latter's influence is even greater.
The second is the impact of downstream demand. At present, the downstream acetic acid industry is in the peak demand season, sales of vinyl acetate and its downstream products are steady, and the production situation of chemical fiber raw materials polyester is good, which promotes the strong market trend of PTA, and the demand for acetic acid is very strong. It also provides strong support for the acetic acid market. Although upstream raw material supply and downstream demand will have an impact on the product, the impact of downstream demand is more decisive.
The third is the impact of the scarcity of resources. Under the background of rising prices in the international market, many major acetic acid plants in the country have been affected by many factors such as equipment failures. The production load has been insufficient. In May, it was met with centralized parking of large-scale devices such as Yangzi Acetyl, Shandong Yankuang, and Shanghai Wusong. Or reduce the load, the output is greatly affected, coupled with the lack of imports to the volume, resulting in a serious shortage of market supply, promoted the rapid rise in prices. Only after the main acetic acid plants at home and abroad gradually recover and the market supply gap gradually narrows, the acetic acid price will gradually return to normal levels.
From the historical market analysis, the trend of methanol and acetic acid prices has been the same. In the past 10 years, the low price area of ​​acetic acid appeared in 1998-2002, which is similar to the price track of methanol, and the lowest price point of both is the same in 1999. Since 2003, the price of methanol has gradually increased, and the focus of acetic acid prices has also gradually increased. Both of them have the same trend of price changes.
However, since 2004, the acetic acid market has begun to diverge gradually with the methanol market, the price trend is not completely corresponding to methanol, often out of an independent market. For example, in 2004 and 2005, when the methanol market price was operating in the mid-range of 2,400-2,700 yuan, the price of acetic acid rose to a high-priced area of ​​more than 8,000 yuan; in the third quarter of 2006, the price of methanol was 3,000. At a high price of ~ 4,000 yuan, the price of acetic acid was only hovering in the mid-price range of 5,000 to 5,500 yuan.
This year's acetic acid market can get rid of the constraints of the methanol market downturn, out of the hot market contrary to it? The author analyzes there are three main reasons.
The first is influenced by the international market conditions. China's acetic acid production is insufficient, and it needs to be supplemented by imports. However, in the 1990s, the proportion of imported acetic acid accounted for a small proportion of the total demand, and most of the years were between 10% and 15%. After entering the 21st century, the economic development has promoted the growth of demand, the market demand gap has increased, and the import volume of acetic acid has increased rapidly. In 2006, the total amount of acetic acid imports in China reached 710,000 tons, accounting for 33% of the total demand. With the increase in imports, the international acetic acid price has gradually increased its influence on the domestic market. From 2004 to 2005, when the price of Far East acetic acid rose to the peak of more than 700 US dollars, the domestic price of acetic acid also rose to more than 8,000 yuan, and this year, the tight supply of acetic acid in Asia increased steadily, and the domestic acetic acid market maintained the same trend. The domestic price of acetic acid is not only affected by the raw material methanol market, but also affected by the international price change of acetic acid, and to a certain extent, the latter's influence is even greater.
The second is the impact of downstream demand. At present, the downstream acetic acid industry is in the peak demand season, sales of vinyl acetate and its downstream products are steady, and the production situation of chemical fiber raw materials polyester is good, which promotes the strong market trend of PTA, and the demand for acetic acid is very strong. It also provides strong support for the acetic acid market. Although upstream raw material supply and downstream demand will have an impact on the product, the impact of downstream demand is more decisive.
The third is the impact of the scarcity of resources. Under the background of rising prices in the international market, many major acetic acid plants in the country have been affected by many factors such as equipment failures. The production load has been insufficient. In May, it was met with centralized parking of large-scale devices such as Yangzi Acetyl, Shandong Yankuang, and Shanghai Wusong. Or reduce the load, the output is greatly affected, coupled with the lack of imports to the volume, resulting in a serious shortage of market supply, promoted the rapid rise in prices. Only after the main acetic acid plants at home and abroad gradually recover and the market supply gap gradually narrows, the acetic acid price will gradually return to normal levels.
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