After the Development and Reform Commission limits prices for 10 months, grain and oil companies will usher in a general increase. Last week, Yihai Kerry, who had been seeking localization, could not resist loss pressure and had to announce a price increase before COFCO Fortune.
This price increase “declaration†has brought about a great shock to the domestic edible oil market. In addition to the previous price increase of Luhua, the general trend of the edible oil market has shown signs of growth.
In fact, not only edible oil, due to the general increase in the price of agricultural products, meat products, wine, moon cake price increase information also emerged in succession, delayed price increases finally sounded.
At the same time, agricultural products and food have become defensive varieties in the major fluctuations in the stock market and futures markets brought about by such factors as U.S. debt. In the past two years, the proliferation of paper money has intensified inflationary pressures, and agricultural products have become a profitable field for financial and industrial capital.
Edible oil continues to rise to "micro profit"
The Lu Hua “price increase day tour†event that began last month has not yet subsided. At the beginning of this month, Yilong Kerry’s Golden Dragon Fish brand edible oil announced an increase of about 5%, mainly involving soybean oil, vegetable oil and blend oil. Variety. Whether the price increase of Golden Dragon Fish indicates that the industry is overwhelmed and restarts a new wave of price increases, it has become the focus of attention in the industry.
At the end of November 2010 and early April of this year, the National Development and Reform Commission had twice talked about the four edible oil companies COFCO Group, Yihai Kerry, China Textile Group, and Jiusan Oils, requesting it not to increase the small package consumption within a certain period of time. The oil price hopes to maintain price stability and provide policy subsidies for these four companies. During this period, China’s edible oil production costs have continued to climb, resulting in losses, production cuts, and production stoppages in various edible oil production enterprises, especially some small and medium-sized enterprises.
According to the current situation, Guo Qingbao, editor-in-chief of China Fatty Net, said that the price increase of Golden Arowana is expected to drive the general rise of the edible oil market. “Because the production cost of edible oil is continuously rising, companies have already felt a certain pressure. Brands such as Golden Arowana, which have a relatively large market impact, will inevitably increase their willingness to raise prices for other companies, especially small and medium-sized enterprises.
China National Grain and Oil Information Center said on August 4th that China's edible oil retail market can withstand a price increase of 5%. Although the margin is limited, it can ease the pressure on production costs.
Some small-scale edible oil processing companies have also shown a rising trend. The relevant person in charge of a vegetable oil plant in Zhoukou City, Henan Province, said that the company had suffered a certain degree of losses due to rising production costs of edible oil, national policies and other factors, but large enterprises There is no action to increase prices, they dare not rush to raise prices. “The gold dragon fish raised the price, in order for the company's normal production and operation, the company has begun to adjust the price of its edible oil brand, or about 3% -5%, but the cost of the former rise and a series of problems, this time The price increase cannot be said to guarantee that the company will not lose money. It can only make up for the losses slightly before reaching a small profit."
Guo Qingbao said that the increase in the price of edible oil will not be large because the current market supply is sufficient and the country’s policy situation is not clear. An excessive increase may stimulate national policy and lead to a new state regulation. The tightening of the rounds, so companies should still maintain a "micro-profit" state to make small gains to slightly increase the losses caused by rising costs.
Various types of agricultural and non-staple foods rose collectively
It is not only edible oil that gives rise to "rises." As a result of multiple factors such as supply, rising costs, and the advent of the Mid-Autumn Festival, a number of food prices have been raised.
Gold ham announced last week that due to rising prices of agricultural and sideline products and pork prices in the first half of 2011, it was decided to adjust the selling price of the gold series products starting from August, and the adjustment range was to increase 10%-20% on the basis of the original price. .
In the midst of the Mid-Autumn Festival, Maotai's mainstream sales of 53 degrees flying Maotai prices have risen to between 1,480 yuan and 1,788 yuan, which is more than 80% higher than the 959 yuan limit set by Maotai at the beginning of this year. In addition to Maotai, the retail prices of high-end white wine such as 52-degree Wuliangye and Luzhou Laojiao also rose slightly, and the retail price was close to 1,000 yuan per bottle.
Moon cakes will also be affected. The main raw materials for the production of moon cakes, including sugar, peanut oil, flour, lotus seeds, and five kernels, have all increased in price. Some analysts have pointed out that rising raw material prices may cause the prices of moon cakes to rise by 20% this fall.
Behind the rise in downstream food prices is the long-term upward trend in the prices of upstream agricultural products. Since May of this year, international sugar prices have risen steadily. In late July, the market for white sugar has ushered in a new round of price increases. The wholesale price per ton of white sugar has risen by a full 600 yuan. The rate of increase in the two months was 13%. This has become one of the driving forces behind the rise in the price of mooncakes.
According to data from the Live Hog Warning Network, on August 4, the average price of pork in the country approached RMB 30 per kilogram, which was a 50% increase from the same period of last year. Affected by the increase in pork prices, soybean meal as a feed for pigs was also “brave†and rose by 3.34 yuan per kilogram, an increase of 8.4% over the same period of last year. Corn reached 2.32 yuan per kilogram, an increase of 17.7% over the same period of last year.
According to Hongyuan Securities, as of the end of last week, the wholesale price of peanuts dropped by 3% from the previous month, but it was up 74% year-on-year. All kinds of food oil prices rose slightly. Such as bottled peanut oil 22.16 yuan per liter this week, the average wholesale price of peanuts was 9.58 yuan per kilogram, the same period last year, barreled peanut oil price was 19.59 yuan per liter, peanut wholesale price of 5.5 yuan per kilogram.
Agricultural products will continue to rise after the U.S. debt crisis
The rising prices of agricultural products and rising expectations make the capital market pay more attention to it and become the defensive varieties in the current shock market.
As a result of the U.S. debt issue and the downgrade of the U.S. credit rating, the U.S. stock market has caused a tornado and spread to the stock and futures markets including China.
The reporters inquired about the WIND data and found that in all sectors last week, the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry, fishery, and food and beverage industries performed the best. Among them, only the agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery industries rose slightly, while other industries suffered different degrees of decline. Ferrous metals, financial services, and household appliances saw the largest drop, while the food and beverage industry also fell, but it was the segment with the smallest decline.
Specifically, oil stocks rose last week on the back of positive price increases. On August 3, Dongling Grain and Oil rose more than 4% and Xiwang Foods gained about 1%. According to the analysis of Guolian Securities, the price adjustment information of small-packaged edible oil directly favors Dongling grain and oil, and indirectly favors Xiwang food.
Guolian Securities analysis pointed out that the 5% increase in edible oil prices is not an "end point." In the first half of the year, the costs of oil and fat companies reversed their costs and caused huge losses. Even if the price of small packages is now raised by 5%, the situation in which the costs and selling prices are reversed has not disappeared, but the situation has eased. In addition, although inflation has shown signs of abating, it is still at a high level. On the policy front, although the price limit has been liberalized, the control of oil will continue. Under such a background, there is no possibility of continuous price increases for small packaged oils. The more likely scenario is that price increases—maintaining (to September)—slightly increase again.
In addition, the futures market has also reacted. Data from the Dalian Commodity Exchange shows that from July 20 to 21, the main contract for soybean oil of the DCE increased by nearly 100,000 in a day, and on August 1st, an increase in price was reported. Main soybean oil increased by nearly 80,000 Masukura again, and the funds entered Masukura significantly.
A futures analyst said that on Monday and Tuesday, the soybean oil futures prices of agricultural products continued to rise. Later, due to factors such as the US debt issue, the futures market oscillated downward. All major products, including legume products, were forced to Next, but it believes that after adjustments brought about by this round of systematic risk factors, the agricultural product market will still maintain an upward trend. “In the current situation, domestic prices of agricultural products will not fall at least.†In addition, its analysis, As long as the spread of money does not stop, inflation will not stop and the bull market for agricultural products will continue. It may only be a “slow cow,†and the price of agricultural products will not fall. The July CPI data to be announced will have certain The meaning of the signal.
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"Bloom" view of the vast central enterprises rush to change the "grains"
In addition to financial capital, industrial capital, including central enterprises, is also competing to enter the agricultural food sector.
China Textile Group is on the rise
In the past two years, China Textile Group has rapidly emerged in the grain and oil sector. Founded in 1951, China Textile Group is a large enterprise group under the SASAC. It is mainly engaged in textile import and export trade and is a traditional foreign trade enterprise. Since the 1990s, the scope of China's textile trade has gradually expanded and it has begun to intervene in large-scale agricultural trade.
In the ranking of domestically-disclosed oil processing enterprises in 2008, the top ones were Yihai Kerry, Jiusan Grease, COFCO, Cargill, Noble Group, Bunge Group, Huifu Grain and Oil, Shandong Bohai, and Luyi Da. Fu, still can not see the shadow of China Textile Group. However, by 2009, China Textile Group will squeeze into the top three. Nowadays, this company, which is mainly engaged in textile trade, has the same grease processing capacity as COFCO Group, which ranks second in China.
China Textile Group quickly rose through mergers and acquisitions and obtained policy approval. In 2008, the layout of China's textile industry started to accelerate, and in 2009 it entered the sprint period. In the past two years, China Textile has successively acquired seven oil companies, including Dongguan Yingfeng Oil Co., Shenyang Jindou Co., Fujian Jinshi and Sichuan Jinshi Co., Dalian Lianwang Co., Zhanjiang Huanong, and Zhanjiang Fuhong Co., Ltd.
In November 2009, the National Development and Reform Commission, the Ministry of Finance, the State Grain Bureau, and the China Agricultural Development Bank jointly issued a document and listed China Textile Group as one of the four grain companies under the central government. Among the companies that have “interviewed†and subsidized the Food Development and Reform Commission, they also include China Textile Group.
Central enterprises enter the market for macro-control
Not only China Textile Group, but also many other central enterprises have entered the grain and oil sector.
On June 16th, AVIC Supply and Marketing Co., Ltd., CNAC Grains & Oils Shanghai Co., Ltd. and Handan City State Grain & Grain Oil Reserve Co., Ltd. established Hebei Zhonghang Grain and Oil Reserve Co., Ltd. in Hebei Province. CATIC Supply and Marketing Co., Ltd. and CNAC Grain & Oil Shanghai Co., Ltd. respectively invested 12 million yuan and 15 million yuan, Handan City State Grain Cereals and Oils Reserve Co., Ltd. invested 3 million yuan. According to reports, CNAC Grain & Oil Reserve Co., Ltd. has already acquired 200,000 to 300,000 tons of corn in Hebei after the listing. The wheat purchase has also started.
It is understood that the National Development and Investment Corporation has also entered the grain and oil trade, and imported sesame seeds from Africa and the Middle East. The Nanguang Group has long been engaged in the wholesale, retail and import and export trade of various types of grain and oil, agricultural and sideline products and traditional commodities. China Agricultural Development Group Co., Ltd As a "central agricultural enterprise", its subsidiary China Farming (Group) Corporation has entered the front of the industrial chain for seed R&D and production, product sales at the end of the industrial chain, and trade in agricultural products that provide services for intermediate production links in the industrial chain.
Some analysts have said that in recent years, many central enterprises that do not rely on grain and oil as their main business have entered the field of grain, oil, storage, and trade, because the "money" scene in this area is good. However, there have also been analyses of the large-scale entry of state-owned enterprises, which is conducive to the country’s macro-control, as well as the protection of national food and food safety.
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