China's Agricultural Machinery Market Operation Report for the First Half of 2010

In the first half of this year, China's agricultural machinery industry continued its steady growth momentum for the past year. As of the end of June, China's total industrial output value, new product output value, sales output value and export delivery value reached 109.11 billion yuan, 12.33 billion yuan, 106.98 billion yuan, and 8.66 billion yuan, an increase of 22.93%, 3.80%, and 21.92% respectively over the same period last year. 25.73%. In particular, export delivery values ​​have entered a strong rebound since the beginning of this year, a change from last year's weak trend.

From the analysis of varieties, with the exception of 10.39% decline in large-scale tractors and year-on-year declines in the large-scale tractors, 19.89% of joint-harvesting tractors experienced significant landslides. In particular, on-field working machinery, food processing machinery, and cotton processing machinery all achieved double-digit increases, which were up by 19.98%, 27.82%, and 31.15% year-on-year respectively. Low-speed trucks continued to maintain the growth momentum of the past year, and the growth rate reached 7.16%.

Statistics show that in the first six months, China's accumulated sales of 972700 sets of tillage machinery, an increase of 37.92%; transplanter 56300 units, an increase of 24.47%; cereal combine harvester 34400, down 5.73% year-on-year; corn harvester 27,800 units, year-on-year The growth rate was 14.17%; the medium- and medium-size tractors were 186,300 units, a year-on-year increase of 17.66%; the number of walking tractors was 562,900 units, a year-on-year increase of 2.59%; the livestock and aquaculture machinery was 193,400 units, a year-on-year increase of 38.46%. The following is a brief analysis of the issues concerning the tractor market, the harvester market, the rice transplanter market and the export of farm machinery products in China.

1, tractor market analysis

In the first half of this year, China’s market has been dragged to show signs of high consolidation, and the market growth of small and medium-sized enterprises remains strong.

Drag and drop the market. According to market surveys, in the first half of this year, China's cumulative production of medium- and large-size trailers hit 189,900 units, an increase of 14.19% year-on-year. From the analysis of the market performance of the big dragging and dragging, the dragged down slightly, with a year-on-year decrease of 9.39%, and dragging up by 16.53%.

The main reasons for the analysis are as follows:

Rigid demand is reduced. We studied the sales of each horsepower segment in Dazhong Moto and found that the demand for large tractors showed signs of development in downward adjustment. There are many reasons for this. First, since the implementation of subsidies for agricultural machinery in 2004, the market energy of China-Tongdao has been greatly released. It has experienced double-digit growth for 6 years in a row. The average annual growth rate is as high as 26.07%. The annual demand is also high. From 90,300 units in 2004 to 289,000 units last year, an increase of 3.2 times in six years. In particular, last year, there was a large demand drag on demand. The second is to explore the development pattern of dragging down China's medium and large enterprises from 2000 to 2009. We can also see that the possibility of high consolidation this year is also very large. China’s Dazhong Tuo experienced a dramatic decline of 37.13% in 2000. In 2001, it experienced a recovery of 4.19%, and a year-on-year growth of 55.59% in the same period last year, after which the market entered consolidation. In 2003, it fell 6.76%. From 2004 to 2006, under the stimulation of subsidies for agricultural machinery, the growth rate increased rapidly by 76.99%, 67.13%, and 33.99%, and annual demand broke through 200,000 units, establishing a high platform. In 2007 and 2008, there was a high consolidation at this high level, with growth rates of 4.99% and 2.37%, respectively. After two years of energy accumulation, market energy was released last year, and the peak since the establishment of the China-Taiwan dragee was seen. Based on the above analysis, we have judged that this year may again see a high consolidation period.

Subsidy lags behind dragging down the medium-to-large market. In February of last year, some provinces in China started subsidizing agricultural machinery. This year, China's agricultural machinery subsidy lags behind last year by nearly two months. Until the end of April, some provinces began to start. Subsidy lag eventually led to a weak boom in the agricultural machinery market in the first four months of the year, and even a weak trend.

The decrease in operating income of agricultural machinery will affect consumer enthusiasm for purchase. As China has been dragging the market to a high level in recent years, the number of large-scale dragging has soared. According to statistics, as of last year, China’s Dazhong Tow’s insurance volume exceeded 3.2 million units, and the increase in the number of holdings directly affected the operating revenue. Market surveys show that at the beginning of this century, the operating revenue of the big towage was quite high, and it took only 3 to 5 years to recover the cost. Now it takes 7 to 10 years to recover. On the other hand, as the price of diesel fuel in China continues to rise in recent years, the operating costs of large-scale operators are increasing. These negative factors are undoubtedly a blow to potential consumers of big delays.

The market for harvesters declined, dragging the market to a chain reaction. A large part of China’s consumers’ purchases are heavily used in conjunction with combine harvesters. This year’s sharp decline in wheat combine harvesters has had a corresponding knock-on effect on demand for large-scale tractors, driving down the demand for large-scale tractors.

Demand for large and medium-sized drag-and-drop has changed in the first half. The history of the tractor market in China has always been a rule, that is, in the first half of the sales to the main drag, the second half of the main drag sales. This is mainly due to the fact that in the spring, consumers buy tractors mainly for field management, while in the fall, they mainly use autumn ploughs and autumn harvests. In recent years, due to subsidies, this law has been broken. This year's subsidy lags behind, causing this law to once again take effect.

Holding money for purchase, watching the atmosphere is strong. In the market survey, we found that in the first half of the year, large and medium-sluggish markets were heavily subsidized, and they were almost close to the generalized system. Some regions even had open registrations. However, consumers have reacted coldly, and many consumers who really have demand are not in a hurry and are holding their own money. Dealers have responded that there is a high proportion of buyers who plan to update this year. Because the original tractor is in use, waiting a month or two is perfectly acceptable to these consumers, perhaps waiting for a good price. A wait-and-see attitude emerged in the market and there was a strong atmosphere of holding money.

Small tractor market. In the first half of the year, small four-wheel tractors sold a total of 149,500 units in China, a year-on-year decrease of 6.28%; and cumulative sales of walking tractors totaled 358,700 units, an increase of 30.33% year-on-year. One subsidy and one subsidence show subsidy effects. China's walking tractors showed a positive growth momentum due to the subsidy, while small four-wheel tractors did not receive any subsidy; Reasonable.

Pre-judgment this year, China's medium and large drag market as a whole or will enter a high consolidation period, on the one hand, the total demand will continue to remain high, on the other hand, the increase will appear to fall, but the decline will be very small. According to the characteristic and forecasting model of China’s medium-to-medium-moving trend from 2000 to the present, it is expected that the decline in China’s medium-to-large drag market will be largely negligible, that is, sales in the whole year will be basically the same as last year.

This year, the market will continue to operate at a high level. The reasons are as follows: First, the 15.5 billion yuan agricultural machinery subsidy will continue to support the market demand this year; Second, the situation of China's medium and large dragging the market appears hot wheels. In the region, this year will “make up classes”; third, traditional big markets such as black, new, Shandong, and Henan will continue to be the backbone of demand, and emerging markets such as Inner Mongolia and Shanxi will drive the market to operate at a high level; Yes, the gradient update will become an important force for the market to maintain its high position in the medium and large towed markets. In particular, the replacement of small trailers by Zhongtuo will continue to expand the market.

The increase in the size of China’s medium and medium drag will fall back. The reasons are as follows: First, last year, China’s medium-to-large drag reached its peak, and this year it has fallen slightly, which is also in line with the law of development in which things are extremely declining. Second, from the analysis of China’s medium and large-scale development laws, its development is a process of capacity accumulation. It is a year of gaining momentum. This agglomeration of “potential” mainly comes from the renewal of Dazhong Tuo. Third, the pulling power of China’s agricultural machinery subsidies has weakened.

2. Harvester market analysis

In the first 6 months, the total amount of harvesting machinery increased slightly. Statistics show that China's 80 major harvesting machinery manufacturing enterprises have cumulatively produced and sold 295,000 units of various types of harvesting machinery, an increase of 2.83% year-on-year. Among them, the combined harvester rose moderately. In the first half of the year, China accumulated 62,200 sets of various types of combine harvesters, an increase of 2.23% year-on-year. among them. The cumulative sales of grain harvesting machinery totaled 34,400 units, a year-on-year decrease of 3.73%, and the number of corn harvesting machines was 27,800 units, a year-on-year increase of 14.17%.

In the first half of the year, the performance of the wheat harvester market in China once again reflected that China's wheat machinery has entered a saturated state, and its demand mainly comes from the renewal of products. Despite the subsidies, it has limited pull.

From the analysis of the rice harvester market, due to the low yield of the rice machine in China, the demand space is far greater than that of the wheat machine, coupled with the driving of agricultural machinery subsidies, the favorable factors still exist in the multi-season rice growing areas in southern China. However, last year's soaring market and diminishing returns from cross-region operations will weigh on consumer enthusiasm. In view of the combination of positive and negative factors, this year, China's rice harvesters will either slightly increase or remain unchanged from last year.

The corn harvester will become the biggest highlight of this year's harvester market in China. We estimate that there may be three conditions in the corn harvesting machinery market in China in the second half of 2010. First, with the increase in the intensity of subsidies for agricultural machinery, the total combined corn harvesting machinery will continue to maintain a double-digit increase; second, such as Jilin. , Liaoning, Shanxi and other provinces to increase the subsidy of corn harvesting machinery, China's corn harvester will appear hot growth situation; Third, if China's corn harvesting machinery market still remains in Shandong, Henan, Hebei and other markets, China's The corn harvesting machinery market will see moderate growth.

3, rice transplanter market analysis

In the first half of this year, China's rice transplanter market continued to maintain a hot trend of growth. More than 90% of the sales in the rice transplanter market come from subsidized sales. In recent years, with the continuous increase of subsidies, the subsidy for rice transplanters has been increasing year by year in major rice growing regions, and the rice transplanter market in China has developed rapidly. According to statistics, in the first half of the year, China sold 56,300 transplanters, an increase of 24.47% year-on-year, including subsidies for 50,234 transplanters.

From the analysis of sales of the eight brands in the rice transplanter market in the first half of this year, the cumulative sales of the eight brands including Kubota, Dongyang, Yanmar, Fulaiwei, Zhongji South, Weifang Putian, Changfa, and Jingguan totaled 55,900 units, which was higher than the sales volume of the previous year. It has increased by 24.7%. The market demand for rice transplanters has been further developed to the high end, and the ride-type rice transplanter has increased the demand of the rice transplanter by 4.73 percentage points. Market concentration further improved. In the hand-rolling and transplanting market, we gradually formed strong brands such as Kubota, Toyo, Flewell, and Changfa Group; in the ride-type transplanter market, Kubota, Yanmar, and Weifang Putian emerged in fierce competition.

In the first half of the year, the rapid growth of China's rice transplanter market mainly came from the following reasons: First, China's rice transplanter market is facing a good opportunity for development, specifically: First, the party and the government attach great importance to rice production mechanization, through the continuous increase of subsidies for agricultural machinery Leading and stimulating the rapid growth of the rice transplanter market; Second, the agricultural machinery departments and scientific research institutions in the main planting areas of rice transplanters have played an important role in technology promotion, scientific research and development, and standardizing the market, providing good technology for the development of the rice transplanter market. Third, the production enterprises have accelerated the technical innovation of rice transplanters, promoted the upgrading of product quality, made the performance of the rice transplanter increasingly stable, and more adapted to the needs of various markets, laying a product foundation for the rice transplanter market.

Second, the rigid market demand is huge. China's rice transplanter market has a huge demand space and broad prospects for development. Statistics show that as of last year, the number of rice transplanters in China was about 250,000, and the machine insertion rate was only 17%. Far below the level of comprehensive mechanization of farming. These also determine the rapid development of China's rice transplanter market.

The third is the rise of agricultural machinery cooperation organizations. In recent years, with the rise of the National Agricultural Machinery Cooperation Organization, the purchasing power of the market has increased and it has become a new force for the demand for rice transplanters, especially for the ride-type high-speed transplanter.

The first half of the year was the golden season for the rice transplanter market in China. The cultivation of southern early rice and northern rice in the north caused market demand to develop. In the second half of the year, the demand for rice transplanters in northern China stagnated, and market demand was mainly concentrated in the double cropping paddies and south of the Yangtze River. Rice area. The stagnation of rice transplanter demand in the high-cold regions of the North will affect the overall market demand in the second half of the year. As a result, the rice transplanter formed a high and low trend before the market demand.

It is expected that the demand for rice transplanters will exceed 80,000 units this year, and the year-on-year increase will be around 30%.

4. The export environment is getting better and the number and amount of exports have increased significantly

In the first half of this year, the export trade of agricultural machinery in China grew rapidly, and the export growth of most agricultural machinery products reached double digits. Statistics show that China's cumulative export delivery value of 10.889 billion yuan, an increase of 25.73%.

From the analysis of the export categories of major agricultural products, the number and amount of exports of wheeled tractors, hand-held tractors and combine harvesters have shown significant growth. The export volume and amount of wheeled tractors and walking tractors increased by 37.53%, 31.24%, 24.33% and 27.80%, respectively. The combine harvester continues to maintain its double-digit growth momentum last year. This year, the growth rate has reached a record high, with the number and amount both breaking 30%. Although the number and amount of sowing, planting, and transplanting machines have declined year-on-year, they have narrowed their decline from the previous month. The volume and amount of exports in the first six months dropped by 23.61% and 11.51% respectively.

According to the analysis of export regions of agricultural machinery, the export of wheeled tractors in China in the first half of the year was mainly concentrated in Europe, Africa and the Americas, and the tractors were mainly concentrated in Asia and Africa. More than 90% of the harvesting machinery was concentrated in Asia.

In the second half of the year, China's agricultural machinery exports will continue to exert its force and become a beautiful landscape for the agricultural machinery market this year. It is expected that China's agricultural machinery exports will maintain double-digit growth throughout the year, and the increase is expected to be around 20%, because the agricultural machinery export market is facing a good development environment.

Affected by the financial crisis last year, the export market last year “cooled down” and accumulated a large demand for energy. This year, with the mild recovery of the world economy, the consumption of developed countries gradually started. The release of energy has led to a full “heating up” of the export market.

In 2009, the export of agricultural machinery in China dropped drastically, and the base number was low, resulting in double-digit growth in exports in the first quarter of this year.

The quality performance of China's agricultural machinery products has been continuously improved, and export strategic strategies have been adjusted to win the market.

China's agricultural machinery export products are highly value-for-money and have a high price/performance ratio. Under the financial crisis, the consumption level of many export destination countries has fallen, and this advantage has been more reflected.

The financial crisis has hit the export companies of other countries even more, and even eliminated some of them, making the competitiveness of China's exports rise and fall.

5. Market price trend forecast

Market research shows that due to weak demand in the market for large tractors and harvesting machinery, many manufacturers have begun to cut prices or cut prices in a disguised manner (winning promotions). More companies are developing price reduction strategies, and price reduction promotions in the second half of the year are becoming more and more preemptive for some companies. Market share "killer".

The price of China's agricultural machinery market has remained stable for many years. It is expected that it will continue to follow this rule in the second half of this year, and there will be slight fluctuations on the basis of stable prices. The reason is as follows:

First, the steady development of the sub-markets for agricultural machinery this year has determined that there will not be major fluctuations in prices;

Second, the decline in individual sub-markets will force some companies to adopt price-reduction promotion measures, such as incentives and promotions, leading to a slight decrease in prices;

Third, the prices of individual new products or large-scale products may rise slightly, such as large-scale harvesters and large-scale tractors, and production companies increase their prices. This situation has emerged in the first half of the year.

In the second half of the year, China’s agricultural machinery market faces many favorable conditions. First, the State Council’s “Opinions of the State Council on Promoting Sound and Rapid Development of Agricultural Mechanization and Agricultural Machinery Industry” will have a profound impact on the operation of the agricultural machinery market in the second half of this year. Under the guidance of the document, the market will usher in a new round of development opportunities. Secondly, the second round of China's second-round subsidy will be gradually put in place in the second half of the year, which will play an important role in setting off a new round of market sales boom; again, due to the lag in subsidies in the first half of the year, the market will experience a low tide in the second quarter, and together with the coming off-season market The accumulation of energy for the outbreak of the market in the second half of the year. Finally, the export market will continue its trend in the first half of the year, showing a double-digit increase. The second half of the year still deserves our expectation.