This year is the first year of LED replacement for traditional lighting, and the penetration rate will be very large next year. Analyst Fan Minmin said. It is understood that in the major areas of downstream applications, LED has become the mainstream application in the display and backlight market, and the space for further improvement in these two areas has been small. Replacing traditional lighting has become the largest market for LEDs in the next few years. According to the statistics of National Semiconductor Lighting Engineering R&D and Industry Alliance, the output value of LED applications in China reached 206.8 billion yuan in 2013, a year-on-year increase of 36, of which the general lighting output value was 69.6 billion yuan, accounting for 34 of the applied output value, indicating that general lighting has grown into the most LED. Important application areas. Based on this forecast, Hongta Securities predicts that the output value of LED general lighting in China will reach 115.4 billion yuan and 180 billion yuan in 2014 and 2015, a year-on-year increase of 66 and 56. This means that it has experienced a frenzied expansion from 2009 to 2010 and 2011. After the industry downturn in 2012, the 100 billion market for LED general lighting is opening. Replacing the situation is difficult to reverse the current dilemma of the world's two major lighting giants may be more intuitive to illustrate the status quo of traditional lighting. As the market for traditional lighting sources such as incandescent bulbs and fluorescent tubes is shrinking, European lighting giant Osram has announced that it will lay off 7,800 people, accounting for about 22. The total number of employees in the world. Another lighting giant, Philips, officially announced in September this year. The 123-year-old lighting business will be divested from the group, and there are also layoffs. We agree with LED lighting to replace this direction of traditional lighting, and have been vigorously developing LEDs, so there will be a phenomenon of rapid development of LED business this year. Chen Wenji, chief operating officer of Foshan Lighting LED Division, told the Securities Times reporter. As of now, energy-saving lamps are the last line of defense against traditional LED lighting. However, with the gradual decline in the price of LED lighting products and the improvement of light efficiency year by year, as a lighting product with high energy efficiency and long life, LED lighting products have become economical instead of energy-saving lamps. According to the calculations of the industry, a family of 10 4 watt LED lights and 10 15 watt energy-saving lamps are used for comparison (4 watt LED lights and 15 watt energy-saving lamps have the same brightness), using 10 LED lights The annual electricity cost can be saved by about 200 yuan. In the past two years, the price of LED products has dropped very fast, and the price/performance ratio has already surpassed that of energy-saving lamps. For example, in early 2012, the price of LEDT8 tube (a type of lamp) was 180 yuan, and by the end of 2012 it had dropped to 40 yuan; in 2013, the product of this model was reduced from 40 yuan to 20 yuan; in 2014, it has been 20 yuan fell to more than a dozen dollars. Chen Wenji said that the luminous efficiency is higher than that of energy-saving lamps, the price is lower than that of energy-saving lamps, and the service life is longer than that of energy-saving lamps. In fact, LED lighting products have broken through the defense line of energy-saving lamps, and now many consumers still use energy-saving lamps can only be said to be a habit. While the lighting advantages of LEDs are becoming more and more obvious, the government has also given strong policy support to LEDs. At the beginning of 2009, the Ministry of Science and Technology launched a demonstration project for the ten-city LED application that promotes energy conservation and emission reduction and promotes the scale of the industry. The project is expected to lead to a mature marketing model in 2015 through the guidance of the pilot phase, reaching the national 30 general lighting adoption of semiconductor lighting, with an expected annual energy saving of 140 billion kWh and creating more than 1 million jobs. The other major product of traditional lighting, incandescent lamps, has already entered the phase of elimination. According to the "China's phase-out plan for the phase-out of incandescent lamps" issued by the National Development and Reform Commission in 2011, China will phase out incandescent lamps in stages. Among them, from October 1 this year, it is forbidden to import and sell ordinary lighting incandescent lamps of 60 watts or more; from October 1, 2016, it is forbidden to import and sell ordinary lighting incandescent lamps of 15 watts or more. This means that after October 2016, China basically stopped selling and importing incandescent lamps. The terminal market really needs people who are familiar with the history of the domestic LED industry. It may be remembered that the LED industry experienced a wave of investment booms from 2009 to 2010, but the industry has been in a downturn since 2011 to 2012. The existence of the bubble at that time. Nowadays, the LED industry is a scene of enthusiasm. Is this a rapid development after solid foundation, or is it a resurgence of the past? The current situation is essentially different from 2009. Wang Jun, director of the market for Sanxiong Aurora, told the Securities Times reporter that it was an upstream boom, but the downstream did not accept it. The fire of LEDs in these two years is really a demand in the terminal market. It is understood that starting from 2009, with the coordination of national policies and the cooperation of local governments, LED industry parks have sprung up everywhere. In particular, the upstream chip industry, with the support of MOCVD (metal organic compound chemical vapor deposition) equipment purchase subsidies, research and development investment amount subsidies and offsets, investment factory approval approval and other special incentives and subsidy policies, the rapid expansion of production capacity. However, the demand for downstream applications continued to be weak from 2011 to 2012. In particular, the lighting application field did not appear to increase in terms of LED production capacity. The imbalance between industrial supply and demand caused the entire industry to enter a trough. At the beginning, due to the immature technology, the LED's light efficiency and longevity were not fixed. At that time, many traditional lighting manufacturers had not yet entered, and downstream manufacturers' demand for chips was very small, so the upstream chip and even the entire LED industry were in a downturn. Gaogong LED CEO Zhang Xiaofei explained the previous experience in the industry, because for traditional lighting manufacturers, the transformation LED is left-handed right-handed after all, so the time will be slower. But now traditional manufacturers are gradually aware of this megatrend, and you will not do it if you don't do it. The performance of Huacan Optoelectronics, which is also a LED chip company, is even more alarming. In the first three quarters of this year, it achieved an operating income of 520 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 153; a net profit of 748.246 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 738.85. The LED industry's prosperity ultimately depends on Infiltration in the field of illumination, because this infiltration process is an irreversible process. The above person said. There is a shadow in the place where the brutal competition behind the prosperity is still bright, and the LED industry, which brings light to humanity, is no exception. In essence, an LED is a semiconductor diode whose technical mode and business model are consistent with silicon semiconductors. This means that as the penetration of LED lighting continues to increase, the attributes of the traditional lighting industry will change. Analyst Fan Yumin believes that because the LED chip and IC driver chip, which are the main raw materials for LED lighting, are semiconductors, the properties of lighting products have changed from the original hardware to the consumer electronics. The consumer electronics industry follows Moore's Law and puts higher demands on the company's production cycle, inventory cycle, management capabilities, and technical capabilities. Companies that do not adapt to this change will be eliminated. Fan Yumin said that from the perspective of the development cycle of the semiconductor industry, the concentration of market share will eventually become higher and higher. In other words, many small companies will be killed. According to research statistics, as of 2013, there were nearly 30,000 domestic LED companies, mainly focusing on the Pearl River Delta and the Yangtze River Delta. Among them, there are about 20,000 LED companies in the Pearl River Delta region centered on Shenzhen, accounting for more than 70 LED companies in China. The recent explosion of the Fengguang legend and the Xilin lighting boss's running event may be a footnote for the survival of small and medium-sized enterprises under the transformation of industry attributes. It is understood that the above two companies are located in Zhongshan City, Guangdong Province, where the lighting is important. The Fengguang Legend is also well-known in the industry for hiring Phoenix Legend as a spokesperson. In late October, the two companies broke the news that the boss lost the link. The LED lighting industry as a whole is no problem, but it is now more influx, and the interior is in the stage of shuffling. In particular, small and medium-sized enterprises that are not large-scale, originally relying on low-cost market, the foundation of rapid growth is mostly based on the risk of accounts receivable, which is prone to problems. Zhang Xiaofei said. Wang Jun admits that in the past two years, the LED market has been hot, and basic enterprises have enjoyed it. Small businesses are still very hard. Small and medium-sized manufacturers have no channels themselves, and the main channels are basically in the hands of the top ten brand manufacturers, so they can only rely on prices. There will be a wave of running peaks in May and June next year, and the industry concentration will definitely be higher and higher. Chen Wenji believes that this year we call it the year of consumption. Everyone bites their teeth and cuts profits. It depends on how strong your upstream resources are and how much profit space you can consume. After this stage of strategic stalemate, starting next year, the follow-up force of enterprises transformed from traditional lighting will gradually be reflected and go faster. The situation of brutal competition is not unique to the downstream industry. Although the upstream chip industry has financial and technical barriers that make new entrants temporarily discouraged, due to the large-scale nature of the electronics industry, it is easier for the upstream to appear strong and strong. For the LED industry, where the total number of enterprises is so large, mergers and acquisitions can only happen in very small quantities, and most of them will quit.
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