In June, domestic maleic anhydride prices continued to decline slightly. In addition to the blind adjustment of natural maleic anhydride companies, the fluctuations in crude oil prices have also stimulated their prices to go lower. At present, maleic anhydride market is facing three major difficulties. Bearishness is still the mainstream intention of market players. It is expected that pessimism will lead to cautious demand and limited market volume. The recent market quotation is only around 10,000 yuan (t price, the same below).
As of the end of last week, the Shanxi market has yet to form a mainstream offer. The selling price is expected to be 9600 to 9700 yuan. It is difficult to ship at high levels and the overall demand is weak. The industry is generally bearish on the demand for maleic anhydride, so the sales pressure of local maleic anhydride is slightly higher. Individual companies have more inventories; Fujian market is weak and stable, with mainstream quotes at RMB 10,100 to RMB 10,200. Downstream pick-ups are modest, bearish expectations remain, suppliers continue to look for buying, and takeovers wait and see; the Hebei market lacks a mainstream report. The disk, sporadic offer is at 10,100 yuan, and the selling price is at 9800 yuan.
Deep drop in crude oil prices
On May 6, international crude oil futures experienced a rare drop, with Brent tumbled by US$10/barrel and WTI plunging by US$9.44/barrel. Coupled with the Fed's second round of quantitative easing (QE2) coming to an end, investors’ optimism about the dollar began to spread, and dollar-denominated commodities were repeatedly frustrated. Maleic anhydride and its related products such as styrene, phthalic anhydride, and ethylene glycol all entered the down channel, and unsaturated resin in downstream products also experienced a large increase in downward pressure and pulled maleic anhydride into a downward trend on the same day. After that, as international crude oil plummeted for five consecutive trading days, maleic anhydride high-priced sources were squeezed out of the market, and prices of RMB 10,800 to RMB 11,000 (t price, the same below) appeared in a flash. The market price quickly fell back to 10,400 to 10,500 yuan and fell to 10,400. The market gained support after the dollar and maleic anhydride was trimmed during this period. However, due to the impact of crude oil prices, as well as the reduction of benzol's rumors, the demand was hit again. At the same time, the downstream unsaturated resin market was in conflict with the maleic anhydride market.
Petroleum benzene reduction boosts
If the collapse of the international oil price is the trigger for the decline of maleic anhydride, the reduction of petroleum benzene in the upstream product will undoubtedly play a role in fueling this. On May 12th, the domestic petroleum pure benzene refinery cut 150 yuan, less than a week of maleic anhydride reentry into the decline channel; on May 18, domestic pure benzene dropped by another 200 yuan, maleic anhydride pessimistically expected to increase, and demand was severely frustrated. The sentiment of buying up and killing has pushed maleic anhydride further down. In addition, some users of maleic anhydride in the Yangtze River Delta received a power cut notice. The Yangtze River Delta is a region with a large amount of maleic anhydride. Unsaturated resin is also a high-energy-consuming enterprise. Electricity curtailment is on the way and the demand for maleic anhydride will have a big impact. The electricity shortage problem in the Yangtze River Delta is plaguing the entire industrial chain. The downstream production facilities are also facing a negative situation. This trend further hinders the downstream idea of ​​taking over the market.
The three major obstacles hinder the rebound
June is the traditional off-season for the maleic anhydride market. Unsaturated resins downstream of maleic anhydride will stop. Based on the consideration of the lack of improvement in demand in the coming January, the downstream is very cautious about taking maleic anhydride. The lack of demand will be the face of maleic anhydride. The first difficulty; Second, the pessimistic expectations of international crude oil, fueled the industry wait-and-see atmosphere, coupled with the overall chemical market is currently not ideal, suppressing the rebound of maleic anhydride prices; again, the recent partial maleic anhydride method 1,4-dimer The start of the diol (BDO) device is believed to help the maleic anhydride out of the predicament, but in fact, BDO is now difficult for the mud bodhisattva to cross the river. The data shows that the recent price decline has exceeded 14.28%, and the recent acetylene BDO, maleic anhydride BDO The output is far greater than required, there will be a greater decline in the latter part, and the support for maleic anhydride is far from enough. This is undoubtedly the third difficulty that maleic anhydride faces. If you want to survive these three hurdles, it is imperative for companies to cut production appropriately.
The high-end domestic maleic anhydride prices continued to shrink downwards. Investors and downstream users were generally expected to decline. Market buying was sparse and the transaction atmosphere was deserted. At the same time, the recent purchase of downstream unsaturated resins was not active and the demand improved, resulting in the local inventory of maleic anhydride. Rising pressure increases. The bearish atmosphere in the maleic anhydride market is still expected in the future, and it is expected that the following behavior will continue to dominate the market.
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