Since the beginning of this year, the domestic production, import, and price of potash have increased at different levels, and the demand for potash has declined slightly due to factors such as price. The industry believes that the development of the industry throughout the year tends to be rational. This is the information that the reporter learned from the sixth annual meeting of the Potassium Salt (Fertilizer) Branch of the China Inorganic Salt Industry Association held in Shanghai on December 8-9. It is reported that during the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" period, global potash fertilizer supply and consumption will increase at the same time, and there will be no significant change in the major monopoly suppliers. The amount of potash fertilizer in different regions of the world may be adjusted due to price fluctuations.
According to statistics released by China Potassium Salt (Fertilizer) Industry Branch, the total domestic potash fertilizer production capacity reached 4.793 million tons (in kind) in 2011, an increase of 12.33% year-on-year; the total annual production is expected to reach 3.803 million tons, an increase of 13.81% over the same period; self-sufficiency rate from 47.2% rose to 58.1%. The annual import volume is expected to reach 3.708 million tons, an increase of 14% over the previous year. At the same time, the national demand for potash this year fell slightly to 6.55 million tons from the previous year's 7.008 million tons.
According to industry insiders, under the circumstances that international potash traders’ quotation climbed by US$500/ton, domestic demand for potash fertilizer is sluggish, and port reserves are higher than the same period of last year. The main reasons are the increase in self-sufficiency rate, the increase in fertilizer prices, and the rational preparation of fertilizers by industry companies. Due to the global rigid demand for potash fertilizer, uneven distribution of resources and uneven distribution of demand, the continuous game between importing countries and traders has led to an increase in global prices.
According to reports, the domestic supply of potassium fertilizer in the first four months of 2011 was sufficient. With the start of spring cultivation, the demand was quickly released and the prices showed a stable trend. The major suppliers of potash fertilizers were all committed to ensuring the work of spring plowing and fertilizers; from May to August, they were demanded. Sustained release, domestic supply is tight, at the same time affected by the overall price increase in the fertilizer industry, the price showed a slight upward trend; from September to early November, due to the impact of two-element fertilizer exports and diammonium price reduction, the domestic price of potash fell, The turnover has been sluggish; from November to now, the price of domestic Russian red potassium ports has stabilized at the level of 3050 to 3100 yuan.
According to statistics, the global potash fertilizer production capacity will increase from 42.7 million tons in 2010 to 59.6 million tons in 2015. The increase of 16.9 million tons of production will come mainly from Canada and Russia. Global industry monopoly concentration is still increasing. Correspondingly, IFA predicts that global potash fertilizer demand will grow from 27.2 million tons to 32.6 million tons at an average annual growth rate of 4% from 2010 to 2015. It is worth mentioning that according to the forecast, the domestic self-sufficiency of resource-based potash fertilizer is expected to reach about 5 million tons (in kind) at the end of the “Twelfth Five-year Plan†period, and the annual demand will be around 8 million tons.
The Chinese Potassium Salt (Fertilizer) Industry Subcommittee gives four suggestions on the development of the industry: First, effective measures should be taken to avoid the ups and downs of domestic potash fertilizer prices; Second, the implementation of domestic, overseas, and imported imports of 1/3 must be steadfastly implemented. Potash long-term strategy; Thirdly, it will develop strategic reserves when international price adjustments are made to increase foreign discourse power; Fourthly, it will strengthen the research and development level of domestic potash resource exploration and industry technology, and enhance the industry's ability for sustainable development.
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