Chang'an's acquisition of Hafei and Changhe has played an important role in strengthening the status of micro-vehicles. In 2006, Changan, the only big player in the micro-vehicle area, was taken over by the rising star Shanghai GM Wuling, and this is a four-year trip. Today, GM Wuling has launched an impact on becoming the first Chinese manufacturer to produce one million cars annually, which accounts for half of the mini vehicle market. And Chang An, who wants to regain the top position in the market segments, will use the capacity expansion brought by Hafei and Changhe to achieve his dream?
Micro market has shown a downward trend
In 2009, the Chinese automobile market, with the stimulation of a series of policies, reversed the downward trend in the second half of last year. With the off-line of the 10 million vehicles in October this year, a year-on-year increase of more than 30% is a foregone conclusion. In all models, minivans are undoubtedly the best. The minibuses, which are halved in consumption tax and doubled in car purchase subsidies, increased by nearly 80% year-on-year in the first three quarters of this year and led all models.
However, there is a crisis behind the infinite scenery. In September, when the Chinese passenger vehicle market broke through 1 million vehicles for the first time in a month, minivans failed to hit new highs. In the third quarter, the sedan, hatchback, and SUVs for the main passenger cars all reached new highs in the quarter, while the number of minibuses sold in the third quarter was nearly 10,000 less than in the second quarter, down 2%.
The decline in mini-buses was mainly due to the decline in demand in the third-tier cities. In the third quarter, three-tiered city minibuses fell 6% compared to the second quarter. Market share accounts for nearly 50% of the three-tier cities in the field of minibuses, and how their demand plays a decisive role for minivans.
The misalignment of micro-tourism is inevitable
In fact, the sales of minivans subject to double preferential policies only rushed after the policy was honored, and they began to decline month by month until the September warmth, but they did not return to the highest level. With only one preferential policy, the sales volume of cars is rising month by month, hitting record highs.
The decline in the sales of minivans has a lot to do with the actual needs of consumers. In the most popular mini-buses in counties and rural areas, cars are still the most demanding models. According to data from Beijing Polka, the market share of cars in all county seats in China was around 65% on average in 2008, which is much larger than that of minibuses.
Since the rapid growth of the passenger vehicle market in 2002, the growth rate of minibuses has never surpassed the growth of passenger vehicles as a whole, but has been in a tepid state of growth, indicating that its demand is not as strong as that of cars. This year's substantial growth under policy stimulus will most likely overrun the growth in the next few years. If there is no follow-up policy stimulus, micro-bus market is likely to decline significantly next year. Under the current circumstances, even if the policy can be continued next year, there is little possibility that micro-businesses will grow.
All this is not good news for Chang’an who just took over Changhe and Hafei. However, with this reorganization, the micro-fifty five-fighting competition has become two dominance, but it is conducive to avoid the situation of vicious competition due to overcapacity caused by overcapacity next year. Chang'an’s top priority lies not only in the integration of the three resources but also in structural adjustments after excess capacity.
China has become the world's largest auto market, but many models do not have high technological content. The independent brands have been suffering from the internal friction of price wars. They really need to integrate resources, really work hard on technology and management, realize a leap from quantity to quality, and be able to directly confront foreign brands. From this point of view, the marriage of Changan CNAC is of great significance to the development of the Chinese automobile industry.
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