"Coal-mining downtime" has always been the most troublesome thing for power plants. Since this year, due to the continued weakness in the downstream coal demand, the traditional coal-electricity contradictions may have reversed. Wang Zhanjun, chairman of the China Coal Transportation and Marketing Association, said yesterday that the current slowdown in domestic macroeconomic development is the main cause of the sluggish coal demand. According to the main economic indicators released by the National Bureau of Statistics in January-February, the electricity consumption of the entire society increased by 6.7%, of which industrial electricity consumption only increased by 4.8%, which was lower than the growth rate of electricity consumption of the entire society by 1.9 percentage points.
Wang Zhanjun pointed out to the “First Financial Daily†that among the major coal-consuming products, output of electricity generated in the period from January to February, thermal power generation, pig iron, and cement increased by 7.1%, 6.8%, 3.2%, and 4.8% respectively year-on-year. The ratio fell by 2.6%, 4.2%, 0.5% and 2.2% respectively in December of last year, which affected the demand for coal.
At the same time, Wang Zhanjun said that despite the signs of stabilization in the market for thermal coal in the near future, downstream demand is still low, coal supply is relatively abundant, and international coal prices have declined significantly. It is therefore not expected that market prices will rise significantly.
According to the data provided by the Coal Transportation and Marketing Association, the average daily coal consumption of key power companies in mid-March was 4.058 million tons, an increase of only 0.9% from February. At the same time, the deposit of coal by key power generation companies was only 8.77 million tons less than that at the beginning of the year. At present, the average time available for coal storage in all power plants can still reach 17 days.
A person in charge of Guodian Jiangsu Power Company also told the newspaper that due to the increase in the price of electricity at the end of last year and the relatively low coal prices in the first quarter of this year, the company’s power plants under the company’s jurisdiction all achieved profitability. Wang Zhanjun further pointed out that with the increase in spring water, the demand for electric coal in some regions may be suppressed. He told the newspaper that the proportion of installed hydropower in the south is relatively high. Since March, rainfall in the south has increased, and the level of major rivers has risen. Therefore, this year's hydropower output may increase, and it may change the situation of the first decline in hydropower generation in more than 20 years last year.
At the same time, hydropower will usher in a new round of peak production in 2012, and the large-scale hydropower stations to be put into operation will have installed more than 20 million kilowatts. It is understood that there are 2.4 million official lands in the Yalongjiang River Valley, 4.8 million in the Jinping River, 2 million in the middle of the Jinsha River, 4,400,000 in the Xiangjiaba in the lower reaches of the Jinsha River, 5.85 million in the Gan River, and Xianyou Pumped-storage Power Station in Fujian. Will be fully operational.
On the other hand, international coal prices have continued to decline since February, and Australian BJ thermal coal prices have dropped from US$117.55/ton in early February to US$106.05/ton on March 22, which has fallen to a new low since 2011, also To a certain extent, it suppressed the rise in domestic coal prices.
A person in charge of Yankuang Group also stated to this newspaper that the increase in imported coal has affected the sales of domestic coal companies, because coal and iron ore are all signed in the annual contract in March, so both parties will intentionally reduce the pressure. Its own output in order to gain the initiative in the negotiations.
At the same time, the weakness in coal prices has affected the operations of coal companies. A person in charge of the Tongmei Coal Group stated to the newspaper that after the Spring Festival, the company’s sales pressure was relatively high. Despite the current stabilization of coal prices, it is expected that the absolute demand will not change much. The person in charge of the Shanxi Transportation Group graciously stated that although the downstream users' demand for thermal coal has decreased, leading to a decrease in terminal prices, the pit price of corporate procurement resources has not dropped.
“At present, the company’s cash flow situation is not optimistic. Looking at the current level of demand, this year's situation of coal companies will probably be more difficult,†said a person in charge of the Kailuan Group.
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