Car prices expected to recover next year

A related person of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers has predicted that the growth rate of China's auto sales will remain at about 7% in 2015, which is basically synchronized with the growth rate of GDP, and the steady development trend of the Chinese auto industry will continue. In 2015, in addition to the rapid growth of the new energy automobile industry chain, the driving force for the automobile industry to pick up momentum is that the increase in the competitiveness of new products is expected to become a direct driving force for the recovery of car companies' performance. The “One Belt and One Road” and state-owned enterprise reforms will also be for auto companies. The valuation continues to add momentum.

Product competitiveness is the main growth line

From the perspective of development of models in November, MPV sales performance was the most eye-catching, up 64.3% year-on-year; SUV increased 37.6% year-on-year, and the growth rate remained high; car sales fell 4.7% year-on-year; micro-customer sales fell 12.9% year-on-year. GF Securities (000,776, stocks) analysts pointed out that sales of high-end models accounted for a further increase, which is conducive to improving vehicle manufacturers' profitability.

According to auto industry insiders, individual models and even products often become "leaders" in the performance of car companies. "In 2000, China's annual sales of automobiles exceeded 2 million for the first time, and then entered a period of rapid development. During the decade from 2000 to 2010, China's automobile sales rose from 2.09 million to 18.06 million, with an average annual compound growth rate of 24.1%. In 2011 and 2012, it was relatively sluggish, with the year-on-year growth rate below 5%. By 2013, China’s auto sales had rebounded sharply to more than 10%, and the main rebounding power came from the growth of SUVs and heavy trucks.”

A large group (601258, stocks) related personages pointed out that SUV is the fastest growing subdivision plate this year. In the case of consumption upgrades and the growing consumption of autos after the 80s and 90s, it is expected that sales of SUVs will continue to increase by more than 30% in the next two years. Great Wall Motors (601633, shares it), Changan Automobile (000625, shares it) and other car companies with SUV-based varieties will directly benefit.

At present, some new automotive products are in an outbreak. In addition to China National Heavy Duty Truck Group's LNG heavy trucks and other products, Great Wall Motor's Haval H8 product is expected to be listed in January 2015, Jiangling Motors (000550, stocks) "roadblazer" as a non-bearing medium and large SUV It is also expected to be sold in the second half of next year, and auto companies such as Jianghuai Automobile (600418, stocks) have also expected to see sales of explosive products in 2015.

State-owned enterprise reform and external expansion market

Dongfeng Motor (600,006, stocks) related parties pointed out that the Chinese auto companies "going out" time window opened earlier, despite the slowdown in the growth of the domestic market, but the "One Belt and One Road" strategic advancement will bring "increases" for car companies .

Association officials confirmed that more than 50 countries along the “Belt and Road” line are mostly emerging economies and developing countries, which are in line with the current consumer market positioning of China’s auto products, and have a vast market and great potential for excavation. Along with the "Belt and Road" strategy, relevant countries will become the target countries for the export of Chinese automotive products.

Futian Automobile (600166, shares) analysis of related parties pointed out that China has more foreign exchange assets, to direct foreign investment and then promote the export of equipment under foreign project contracting is a rational choice. "In the process, the commercial vehicle as the main body of engineering equipment has a promising future."

While seeking external increments, the promotion of internal reforms is also expected to “improve” the auto companies. Under the background of the “new normal” of the Chinese economy, the reform of auto enterprises is expected to become more intense. From the beginning of the year to now, SAIC (600104, stocks), Huayu Automotive (600741, stocks), Jianghuai Automobile and many other auto companies have been conducting Related reform exploration.

The analysis of related parties of CAAM pointed out that asset injection helps to increase the intrinsic value of the enterprise, and the overall listing can increase the value of resources, while the mixed reform will help improve the governance structure and improve the operating efficiency, including equity incentives and the introduction of strategic investment. Employee stocks and other forms.

At present, among the listed companies of the central enterprises of the two cities, whether it is FAW Xiali (000927, stocks) and FAW Car (000800, stocks), or the Ministry of State Machine of China Autos (600335, shares it) and Lin Hai shares (600099, Shares), or Changan Automobile with a military background and China Jialing (600877, stocks), all have strong incentives and expectations for reform.

In terms of local state-owned enterprises, although there are still many companies waiting for the spirit of reforms, many companies have taken the lead in practice. The equity incentives of companies such as SAIC, HUAYU, and JAC have already started. Some brokers expect 2015. The year is expected to continue to introduce more substantial reforms.