This announcement has made the BAK Group the focus of attention in the industry.
Bie Group Vice President Liao Zhenbo introduced to the 21st Century Business Herald. In 2016, the annual shipment of BAK Battery reached 2.5GWh, and the production and sales of batteries exceeded 200 million, accounting for about 10% of the national power battery market. In the ternary power battery The field accounts for approximately 30% of the market.
"In the new energy automobile industry, a consensus has been reached. Lithium iron phosphate batteries are used for commercial vehicles, and ternary batteries are used for passenger cars. With the gradual release of the passenger vehicle market, the ternary power battery market is erupting." Liao Zhenbo introduced In 2020, BAK Group's battery capacity will reach 15GWh, and revenue will reach 18 billion yuan, accounting for 12% of the power battery market.
Lithium battery surplus is only low-end products
"21st Century": BAK has both 3C battery business and power battery business. How do these two businesses work within the group?
Liao Zhenbo: Bick started with 3C battery and is one of the earliest manufacturers of power batteries in China. As early as 2004, we jointly developed the world's first power battery, namely lithium iron phosphate 26650 battery, with A123 in the United States. However, due to the inconsistent judgment of the technical route, BAK gives priority to the development of high energy density lithium in the ternary material system. Ion batteries have abandoned the iron-lithium battery products that have been heavily invested in research and development.
The focus of BAK's shift from 3C batteries to power batteries was in 2014, which was called the first year of the new energy vehicle market. At present, BAK Power and its subsidiaries have a total of 130 PPM cylindrical lithium battery automated production lines, 11 60PPM lithium battery automated production lines, cylindrical lithium battery capacity of about 1.04 million / day, mainly used in automotive products.
In 2014, power battery sales accounted for only 20% of the Group's revenue, and 3C batteries accounted for 80%. In 2015, sales of power batteries and 3C batteries accounted for the same proportion. In 2016, the power battery accounted for 84.58% of the Group's revenue.
"21st Century": This change in internal product structure is also reflected in the financial statements of BAK Power Battery. The operating income of BAK Power Battery from 2014 to 2016 was 148 million yuan, 530 million yuan and 2.391 billion yuan respectively, and the profits were -1,879,300 yuan, 26,332,400 yuan and 451 million yuan respectively. Why is the profit of BAK Power Battery growing so fast in 2016?
Liao Zhenbo: This is mainly due to the continuous outbreak of the industry and the rapid growth of the company's performance. In 2015, we accounted for only 2% of the power battery market, mainly due to the fact that the ternary battery could not enter the passenger car field, and the sales volume was relatively small.
In 2016, we loaded more than 50,000 new energy vehicles in the field of power batteries, ranking second among domestic battery suppliers, second only to BYD (002594, stocks).
Among them, Zotye is our biggest customer. In 2016, Zotye E200 shipped 40,000 units, of which more than 20,000 battery packs came from BAK; Zhongtai Cloud 100 shipped 20,000 units, and nearly 15,000 units were driven by BAK Power. At the same time, Huatai Automobile also has a quantity of nearly 7,000 vehicles.
In 2016, we accounted for 10% of the power battery market, and the ternary segment has reached 30%. "21st Century": How big is your current battery capacity? How to layout in the future? Does the industry's overcapacity affect you?
Liao Zhenbo: We have achieved a capacity of 6.5GWh in 2016. It is expected to achieve 8GWh capacity in 2017 and 15GWh capacity in 2020.
Although many people are discussing the overcapacity problem in the lithium battery industry, I think this is only a structural surplus. The surplus is only low-end products, and the high-end products are still scarce. For example, the 2.750Ah 18650 product is currently only available in the market.
"21st Century": What are the raw material suppliers for your 18650 battery?
Liao Zhenbo: The specific supplier name is not convenient to disclose. The suppliers of positive and negative materials are mainly domestic manufacturers. The copper foil in the separator and anode materials is a foreign supplier, and the electrolyte is prepared by ourselves.
Take the 811 system high nickel and less cobalt route
"21st Century": The upstream materials of the battery have risen sharply, and the downstream car companies have the urge to suppress prices due to the subsidence. What do you think is the reason for the rise in upstream prices? What is the situation this year? How does Bick face the pressure from the upstream and downstream?
Liao Zhenbo: From the end of 2015, the price of cathode materials has fluctuated. Initially, the price of lithium carbonate rose, and last year it was adjusted to a level acceptable to everyone. At the end of last year, the price of cobalt rose. I think that from the perspective of supply and demand, it is not entirely in short supply, but a few manufacturers are speculating.
Looking back at history, the price of cobalt has risen to one ton of more than 100,000 yuan in 2007. At that time, there was indeed a shortage of demand for raw materials due to the expansion of demand for notebook computers, but there were also some reasons for the operation. The price of cobalt dropped after three months. The magnitude is very large.
Therefore, I expect that the price increase of cathode materials will not last for too long. The follow-up trend of prices can be seen in May and June this year, but the overall impact on us is not particularly large.
From a technical point of view, we will mainly develop the technical route of nickel and cobalt, and develop the ternary lithium battery of the 811 system, in which the proportion of cobalt accounts for 10%, so that the impact of the increase in cobalt price can be minimized.
"21st Century": In terms of high-nickel ternary materials, the materials of the 811 system are currently only mass-produced in China and gold. How do you guarantee the supply of materials?
Liao Zhenbo: The ternary materials of the 811 system, the manufacturers that do mass production in China do have only gold and lithium batteries, but we also reserve suppliers from South Korea and the United States. Nowadays, the product manufacturing process of the 811 system is particularly difficult, and the environmental requirements are extremely high, and the requirements for material manufacturers and battery manufacturers are very high. We have arranged it in the early stage, and all the production lines are high nickel 811 and NCA production lines.
At the same time, due to the increased ternary lithium battery energy density of the 811 system, the state's subsidy quota is higher than the original 622 and 532 system ternary lithium batteries, so the comprehensive cost performance of high nickel batteries can also be reflected. Now our 811 system battery has begun mass production.
"21st Century": Is there a high-nickel ternary battery for the 811 system for car companies?
Liao Zhenbo: Yundu Automobile uses our high-nickel 811 battery. Jianghuai Automobile (600418, shares it) also plans to use our high-nickel 811 battery, and has completed safety testing. For the 2.75Ah high-nickel batteries, all car manufacturers are very concerned, and there are still very few enterprises that can do mass production. It is estimated that there will be 5 to 6 production by the end of the year. We will push the 2.75Ah battery in 2018, and all new customers and new models can use high-nickel batteries.
Don't consider investing in upstream companies
"21st Century": Battery materials are currently in a shortage situation and it is difficult to change in the short term. Do you have plans to invest in upstream materials companies?
Liao Zhenbo: Regarding the investment in upstream raw materials, some friends have recently carried out this action. In the past few years, we have also studied the participation in the supply chain. Although the upstream material enterprise market valuation is relatively high, we are not considering whether to participate in the market valuation, but to participate in the security of material supply.
However, we must also see that there are certain risks in participating in upstream enterprises. The battery material system is still in the process of continuous evolution. Today, this material is good, and higher-performance materials will come out in a few years.
Therefore, in the matter of participating in the upstream companies, we have only been doing research and discussion so far, and have had discussions with some upstream companies. But so far, we have been single-minded to make batteries. To solve the upstream material supply risks, we believe that it is more dependent on maintaining a better cooperative relationship with upstream companies.
"21st Century": What is the layout of BAK in the next generation of batteries?
Liao Zhenbo: On solid-state batteries, we are now developing a gel-state battery, also known as a semi-solid battery. Of course, the ultimate goal is all solid, and we have formed an all-solid-state R&D team. The disadvantage of an all-solid-state battery is that it can't solve the interface problem and is currently in the laboratory stage. Of course, the future does not rule out the problem of finding a better polymer to solve the conductivity. We expect that with the advancement of technology, all solid-state batteries will be mass-produced after five years.
In the field of sodium ion batteries, we are working with Oxford University to optimize diaphragms and strive for a big breakthrough this year. After all, it is only a product that is being carried out in the laboratory. I want to enlarge the certification in production and hope to make a breakthrough in storage.
In terms of fuel cells, we have noticed that Japan is actively deploying fuel cells, and we have also paid attention and layout accordingly. We believe that fuel cells are most likely to compete directly with lithium-ion batteries in the future. After all, fuel cells are the most environmentally friendly.
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