Over half of the year of the dragon, car companies' "test" results are also gradually released. According to the latest sales data released by the CLUCC, in the first half of 2012, the domestic passenger car market sales volume was 7.09 million, an increase of 5.6% year-on-year. Although China's auto market as a whole has continued to experience a declining domestic economy, there is no major surprise but it also meets the industry's expectation of a rational return to the auto market. However, the polarization of the auto market has become more serious. The weaker and weaker players have become weaker. The joint venture brands have continued to lead the auto market and their own brands have fallen into a quagmire. The market share has been further squeezed through a seemingly placid auto market. Representation We can see a helpless reality. The dream of our own powerful country can only be a dream. It will take time to realize it.
Under the influence of various current pros and cons, the Chinese auto market will show a trend in the second half of the year that has caused widespread industry buzz. With regard to the currently known information, the butterfly effect brought about by the restriction of purchases in Guangzhou may rise in the second half of the year, and the price of oil, which may be unable to be reversed despite a phased downward adjustment, will increase. The structural incentives such as subsidies for small-displacement vehicles and the New Deal for cars to the countryside Policies, as well as the newly implemented energy-saving and new energy vehicle development plans, bank interest rate cuts, and preferential policies introduced by auto companies to achieve their annual targets, will boost the auto market. The development trend of the Chinese auto market in the second half of the year under multi-factor checks and balances deserves attention.
Here, Gasgoo.com has meticulously sorted out the predictions of the overall trends of the Chinese auto market in the second half of the year by the industry. In general, the mainstream opinion of the industry is cautiously optimistic about the auto market in the second half of the year and believes that although there is a certain degree of Unfavorable factors, but the auto market will continue to show an overall upward trend in the second half of the year. The following is a detailed content, so stay tuned!
◆ Association Expert Government Officials' Views China Passenger Cars Joint Meeting Secretary General: Rao Da View: In the second half of the year, the increase in car sales may see a slight rebound. The auto market growth in the year is about 7%. Rao Da said that in the first half of the year, the auto market actually had Higher growth rate. The working day in the second half of this year was five days longer than the first half of the year, laying the foundation for a slow recovery in the second half of the year. Rao Da predicts that the growth rate of general passenger vehicles will be about 10% this year, the growth rate of cars will be about 7%, and the total sales volume of cars will be about 19.8 million. Regarding the year-on-year decline in sales volume in June, Rao Da pointed out that “The most important reason for the decline in the number of vehicle sales in the month-on-month period is that the government departments of our country plan to introduce some stimulus policies, which again caused the phenomenon of the market holding money to be purchased.†Rao Da Says, "In the second half of this year, the increase in car sales may see a slight rebound."
Rao Da also expressed his concern about the adverse impact of the purchase restriction in Guangzhou on the auto market. , "Next, China is likely to follow up in many cities, and licensing will likely become an important means to ease traffic pressure." Rao Da said, "If a city limit, advance consumption can offset the impact of limit licensing." , but if more than one city joins the restricted-brand team, this pressure on the market is unbearable."
Deputy Secretary General of the National Passenger Vehicles Association: Cui Dongshu’s point of view: In the second half of the year, the auto market will grow at a faster rate and the annual growth rate will reach around 10%. Cui Dongshu said that if there are no sudden events in the second half of this year, the growth rate of the auto market will increase. It will be faster, especially the passenger car market will begin to recover. The growth rate of the passenger car market in the second half of this year will exceed 10%. The overall growth rate of the Chinese passenger vehicle market in 2012 will be around 10%, or even higher.
Cui Dongshu also pointed out that the joint venture brand vehicle manufacturer capacity expansion is the biggest growth point in the auto market, in addition to the rapid growth of SUV, B-class car and several luxury car segment market, will drive the overall speedup of the auto market. Cui Dongshu said that from the perspective of the growth characteristics of the current auto market, the most bitter time has passed. Although the competition will be increasingly fierce, auto manufacturers and distributors are under great pressure, but the overall situation is good. The general direction is continuously rising.
China Automobile Association Association tangible automotive branch president: Su Hui's point of view: Guangzhou purchase or will save the national auto market, the second half of the auto market will be properly improved Su Hui said that the purchase of Guangzhou or will save the national auto market. While the industry has consistently belittled the limit purchase policy introduced by Guangzhou, Su Hui has given different opinions. "I would like to thank the Guangzhou Municipal Government for the possibility of sacrificing a city in Guangzhou to save the national auto market." He pointed out that from the current point of view, the auto market that was originally expected to be welcomed in the third quarter will not be able to come by the end of the year. At the same time, Guangzhou introduced the purchase restriction policy, on the one hand, it strengthened the confidence of a group of large and medium-sized cities in China to manage traffic congestion, and took Guangzhou as an example to implement total sales control of automobiles; on the other hand, it was affected by the public opinion of Guangzhou Auto's purchase restrictions. In cities where traffic jams are present, the majority of consumers will purchase cars ahead of schedule in the second half of the year, so the auto market will improve in the second half of the year.
In response to the increasingly fierce competition in the mid-to-high-end car market, Su Hui said that the price war in the mid-to-high-end car market will continue in the second half of the year, but the rigid demand for the market has picked up momentum, and the overall situation of this market segment is promising.
Deputy General Secretary of the Auto Circulation Association: Luo Lei: The auto market will be flat in the second half of the year and the first half of the year Luo Lei said that some organizations expect that China's economic situation will rebound in the second half of this year. If the economy rebounds, there will be a rebound in the auto market. Helped. However, the impact of limit licensing is greater, and the auto market may still be flat in the second half of the year.
Regarding the influence of “restricted purchases,†Luo Lei gave a more comprehensive review. His views include: 1. The low-end vehicles gradually fade out; 2. The new purchase demand mainly changes to the exchange demand; The second-hand car is mainly transformed from local digestion to export; 4. Channels, methods, and price reconstitution of second-hand cars; 5. Dealer business processes change, and replacement becomes the business focus; 6. Dealers should carefully consider how After-sales service to find breakthroughs.
National Information Center Economic Consultation Center, Industry and Market Analysis Department Director Liu Ming: The automobile market environment is better than the first half of the year in the second half of the year, and the auto market may increase by 10%
Liu Ming said that the trend of passenger cars in the second half of the year is closely related to the macroeconomic trend, and the macroeconomic trend may be a decisive factor in the trend of our passenger car market. He pointed out that from the second half of the year, the steps of domestic economic regulation will be tilted toward stable growth. Under such circumstances, the momentum of economic recovery will not be too high. The overall growth will gradually pick up at the bottom of the second quarter. Therefore, judging from the overall development trend of the domestic economy, it is more favorable for the auto market in the second half of the year.
Liu Ming also pointed out that from other perspectives, automobile-related encouragement policies have been introduced, and the possibility of replacing old cars with new ones and introducing cars to the countryside is also relatively large. The automobile energy-saving subsidy policy has been introduced, with more promotional efforts and stable oil prices. Therefore, overall, the passenger car market environment in the second half of the year is slightly better than the first half of the year, and the national growth rate of 10% is worth looking forward to.
President of Shenyang Auto Circulation Association: Tang Jinhua: The auto market will rebound in the second half of the year, but the overall situation will not change. Tang Jinhua said that the first half of this year was affected by the cancellation of purchase tax preferential policies, rising oil prices, and restrictions imposed by some cities. As a result, the growth rate of domestic automobile production and sales has fallen considerably. At the same time, objective factors such as traffic jams and rising parking fees in various places have also affected the psychology of consumers' purchase of cars to some extent. Tang Jinhua believes that the entire world economy is still recovering and the economic situation is still very severe. Therefore, it is normal for the growth of automobile production and sales to slow down. "With the adjustment of sales strategies of various manufacturers, it is expected that the domestic auto market will rebound in the second half of this year, but the overall situation will not change."
â—† Senior analysts in the industry Senior commentators in the industry: Jia Xinguang: In the second half of the year, the quality of marketing will directly affect the completion rate of each brand's tasks. Jia Xinguang said that judging from the information released, new levels will be listed in the second half of the year. The models are all of high quality, and good products will be the market's strengths. The new car offensive will inevitably stimulate the growth of the auto market to a certain extent. However, he also pointed out that with the successive release of statistics on sales in the first half of the year, most car dealers' half-year test scores showed that the status of the current car companies is not ideal. Whether it is for OEMs or for first-tier distributors, looking for incremental points in the second half of the year has become an urgent task. Compared with the launch of new products at all levels in the retroactive market, good marketing may be the key to increasing the auto market in the second half of the year.
Jia Xinguang believes that the new car is not a panacea for the market, and hopes that the new model will be a temporary solution. At present, the majority of businesses seeking quantity will only seek to narrow their sales channels. Currently, the problem with most dealers in the market is that the market's resilience is relatively poor, not caused by new and old product issues. Especially when the current market growth rate drops sharply, it is the marketing experts who can sell the vehicles.
According to statistics released by the China Automobile Association before the sales statistics of various brands in the first five months, only about 30% of car companies completed the first half of the completion rate of more than 40%, more than half of the brands to complete the first half of the established target is difficult, and even some brands simply do not hope to complete. Under the background that the task has not been reduced for the whole year, the tasks to be completed in the second half of the year have naturally increased. In this regard, Jia Xinguang said that in the second half of the marketing will directly affect the completion rate of each brand task.
Xinhua News Agency Senior Reporter: Zhang Yi’s point of view: The domestic auto market must stabilize and recover in the second half of the year, said Zhang Yi. The annual June is the off-season of the traditional auto market, and this year is no exception. However, starting from the third quarter, the domestic automobile market will gradually climb and the situation in the second half will be significantly better than the first half.
Zhang Yi also pointed out that in recent months, international oil prices have been falling, and domestic oil prices are also falling. This will also bring positive factors to the auto market in the second half of the year. In response to the new policies for stimulating auto consumption in the plan, Zhang Yi pointed out that from the perspective of the old-for-new trade policies that have been introduced, the favored models are mainly commercial vehicles. The legendary car-to-country policy, if it can be implemented, will mainly benefit from crossover passenger vehicles and minivans, which have little impact on the car market. Therefore, relying on policies to stimulate the growth of the auto market this year, the role is limited. He stressed that to maintain the growth of the auto market this year, the key is to open up the second and third tier cities, as well as the urban and rural areas and the rural market. The growth of the auto market is mainly in these places.
Zhang Yi once said on Weibo that on June 20, the People's Bank of China released a questionnaire survey of depositors for the second quarter of 2012 showing that residents’ willingness to purchase cars in the next three months was 15.1%, which was the highest since 1999. According to this, he believes that the domestic automobile market should stabilize and recover from the second half of the year: Wang Bo: The auto industry will comprehensively strengthen in the second half of the year. Wang Bo said that according to economic statistics released by the National Bureau of Statistics, industrial production is The steady and rapid growth of the model, the country’s initial control of the economy has achieved initial success, and various industries have gradually resumed growth, and the automobile industry, which is an important part of economic development, will also become stronger in the second half of the year. The promulgation of the second round of automobile-to-country policies will make the rural market become the main battlefield for major companies and manufacturers in a new round of competition. ""
Wang Bo also pointed out that the central bank’s recent interest rate cuts hinted at further monetary easing. He believes that “the interest rate cut will, to a certain extent, reduce the pressure of car purchases by loan buyers and further stimulate the automobile consumer market. The recent decline in commodity prices and the reduction in domestic oil prices will also directly boost car consumption.
◆ Car executives' viewpoints Guangben Executive deputy general manager: Yao Yiming’s view: The overall trend of the auto market in the second half of the year will be better than Yao Yiming in the first half of the year. As some major cities have successively introduced new car restriction policies, terminal sales may cause ups and downs. The risk must not be prevented. However, he believes that Guangben still has confidence in completing the annual sales target of 400,000 vehicles.
He further stated that “the European debt crisis that has plagued the world is developing in a favorable direction for the final settlement. The Chinese government has also successively introduced a series of powerful measures to stabilize growth, and it is expected that the macroeconomic situation will show a trend of bottoming out. The trend will be better than the first half."
General Manager of Chevrolet South China Marketing Center: Chen Wenjin’s point of view: Maintaining a 10% growth forecast for the auto market Chen Wenjin stated that at the beginning of this year we forecast that the auto market will grow by 10% for the full year, but from the data of January to May this year, the performance has not reached the target. The Guangdong region even experienced a 5.7% negative growth. However, with the economic outlook gradually clear, the fall in oil prices and the support of national policies, the development of the auto market in the second half will be greatly improved. Based on this, we still maintain the 10% expectation of the auto market. For GM, the forthcoming energy-saving benefits and car-to-country policies will benefit Sail’s entire system.
Chen Wenjin also pointed out that the country’s intention to stimulate the consumption of the auto market has been clear. For a long time, the sales of the auto market have been mainly concentrated in first-tier cities. The second and third-line markets are far from saturated. With the deteriorating environment for car use in the first-tier cities, the government hopes to promote automobile consumption in second- and third-tier cities, and guides them through the policies of car-to-country. The car consumption in the third and fourth-tier cities allows more people to live a car life.
Changan Mazda General Manager: Liu Chuanchang View: It is expected that the auto market will reach 7.5% growth this year. Liu Chuanchang said that in the past decade, the growth rate of Changan Mazda is about the same as the growth rate of China's GDP. This year, Changan Mazda's sales increased by 21% from January to May, so we expect passenger cars to reach 7.5%-8% growth this year.
Liu Chuanchang pointed out at the same time that although the second half of the year will see whether the market will rebound due to the introduction of stimulus spending policies, it still needs an adjustment period for the rapid increase in the auto market in the past two years. We expect this year's auto market to achieve 7.5% growth is a normal phenomenon.
GAC Toyota Deputy General Manager: Hideki Matsui: The situation in the second half of the auto market will be warmer than Matsushita Hideki in the first half of the year. In the first few months of this year, the situation in the auto market was very serious. From the standpoint of the passenger car market, in the context of China's export trade and investment restrictions, although the auto market has a slight increase of 3%, the consumer's desire should be less than 3% growth. With the promulgation of the automobile consumption policy, we believe that the situation in the second half of this year will be warmer than in the first half of the year.
Matsui Hideki also pointed out that the proportion of auto consumption in China’s GDP is quite large. As an auto maker, we have great expectations for further growth in the auto market in the second half of the year.
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